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Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, September 27, 2020

On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, the Australian All Ords share price index remains bearish, notwithstanding the index’s rebound and move back to positive momentum last week. Essentially its red 10-day trendline remains below its green 30-day trendline, though it's red/green colored MACD momentum oscillator is now slightly positive. On medium-to-long-term trend analysis, the All Ords index remains bearish with its green 30-day trendline still below its blue 300 days one and its red Coppock momentum indicator still in negative territory and falling.

Locally, Gold continues to have positive momentum over a 9-month timeframe though has been drifting sideways since March. The other sectors, resources, financials, and property have shown negative momentum over this time period.  Globally, gold also is in front over a 9-month period though languishing since March. The blue American share market is still positive notwithstanding its recent fall. The green Other-Developed markets and the red Emerging markets remain in the doldrums.

It’s been a rough month for US stocks. Until last Thursday the S&P500 futures index was down 7.6% which rates as a “pullback” while the Nasdaq futures index was down 10.9% which amounts to a “correction”. As I have said many times, Wall Street sets the tone for all developed stock markets including Australia’s. Hence where America goes, other markets usually follow.

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, September 28, 2020

S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones 30 Index finish lower for the fourth straight week. However, the Nasdaq Composite bucks’ trend to close higher on the week.

This week was traditional up and down ride for the Equity markets that ultimately left the S&P 500 down 0.6% -- its fourth straight weekly decline.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.8%, and the Russell 2000 declined 4.0%.  The Nasdaq Composite, however, gained 1.1%. 

There was not one single thing traders could latch on to and say this is the reason why equities struggled.  Instead, it was another week filled with events that fed into the general uneasiness and the push lower in the markets seen this month. The information technology (+2.1%), consumer discretionary (+1.2%), and utilities (+1.2percent ) sectors closed higher. However, growth concerns were evident from the declines in the cyclical energy (-8.6%), materials (-4.6%), financials (-4.2%), and industrials (-2.6percent ) sectors.  

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, September 28, 2020

This week's uncertainty originates in a variety of questions becoming more or less prominent. Will Congress pass another round of stimulus? Will the pandemic spike again? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced? What will the outcome of the U.S. elections be and what impact will it have on the economy and the markets?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.32% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +23.89% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
LevIndex is now invested 100% in UPRO (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Monday, September 28, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new low-risk reading of 19%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a low-risk score of 8%.

Quick info:

A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

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Purvis Investments

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, September 20, 2020

The US stock market risk sunk to a medium risk level of 50%. US tech stock risk closed lower at a medium risk reading of 51%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) increased to a medium risk reading of 51%.

The regional stock risk score for the US, Canada, and Western Europe sunk to a medium reading of 48%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., US, Canada, and Western Europe).

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Australian Market:

The Australian share market remains bearish on both short-to-medium-term or medium-to-long-term trend analysis.  The All Ords index 10-day trendline remains below its 30-day trendline and its MACD momentum indicator is still negative though slightly less so than last week.  The All Ords index 30-day trendline remains below its 300-day trendline and its Coppock momentum indicator remains negative and falling.

American Market:

Importantly the American S&P500 share index is close to going bearish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. The next week should decide whether it undergoes a “death cross” by its 10-day trendline crossing below its 30-day one. Its MACD momentum is negative and becoming more so in the last two days.  The American index’s 30-day trend line still sits comfortably above its 300-day trend line showing that the market's medium-to-long-term direction still remains bullish notwithstanding its recent pullback. Its Coppock momentum oscillator is still strongly positive but flattening.

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, September 21, 2020

Large-cap indices decrease for the third consecutive week

It was just another bad week for major US Stock Indexes mega-cap stocks, but some turned into value and cyclical stocks did confine the markets declines.  Both the S&P 500 (-0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) both dropped 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.03%) completed just under its own flat line.  Offsetting these, the Russell 2000 which had been a laggard this year to date rose 2.6%. 

The week began on a bullish note, the market rebounded from weekly setbacks, but the general weakness started on Wednesday following the FOMC policy meeting decision.  The Fed failed to pacify traders. Although, no one could blame the central bank this past Wednesday.  Briefly, the Fed kept rates unchanged and indicated they will stay near zero until 2023. 

We invite you to join our Teabull Free Membership today. 

As a Teabull Free Member, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock, Bond, and Gold Miner Indexes!

To join Teabull Free please click: Register

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, September 21, 2020

Investors continue to try to deal with uncertainty. Will the pandemic spike again? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced? How severe does the impact of the pandemic have to be to destroy optimism, impair future earnings, and renew the recession? What will the outcome of the elections be and what impact will it have on the economy and the markets?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.30% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +35.25% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
LevIndex is invested 75% in UPRO and 25% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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MutualFundStrategist.com

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, September 6, 2020

For the first time in almost three decades, Australia is officially in recession, two quatres of negative growth - both the March and June quarters.

America’s Nasdaq index (largely comprising tech companies) had its biggest fall since its crash last February/March. The 10-day trend line for the NASDAQ still sits above its 30-day trendline. This suggests the NASDAQ rally since the 23^rd March is not over yet. The 4.3% fall in the index between last Wednesday and Friday is just a pullback. If it falls more than 10% from its Wednesday peak it will be a correction and signal that the bull market is over.

The 10-day trend line for the S&P500 also remains above its 30-day trendline. So its rally is still intact too.

But the story in Australia is not as sanguine. The All Ords index has been drifting sideways for the last three months with the result that its 10-day trendline is just a whisker above its 30-day trendline. It is still bullish, but only just so.

Ironically the All Ords 30-day trendline was on the cusp of breaking above its 300-day trendline which would have confirmed the bear market was over, not just on a short-medium term framework, but also on a medium-long term one. But note that the 30-day trend line is now shying away from the 300-one.

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, September 7, 2020

The US Stock Market’s August momentum bled into September to begin the week. Indeed, the S&P 500 notched its 22nd record close of the calendar year, but profit-taking from the mega-caps and growth stocks finally took the significant indices drastically lower by week's end. Notice, the curve-steepening action on Friday basically undid the curve-flattening action from earlier in the week.

The XAU Index closed lower 2.14percent to a level of 149.58. The U.S. Dollar Index improved 0.5percent to 92.79. The CBOE Volatility Indicator increased 33.9percent to 30.75, as investors bought some security against additional weakness in stocks.

Moreover, the S&P 500 finished the week at levels it last traded on August 21. The S&P 500 dropped 2.3 percent, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.8 percent, and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.7%.

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, September 6, 2020

The global US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) remained at a high-risk level. The GUSDR finished higher at 88%.

The global EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed lower at a low-risk reading of 12%.

The global cryptocurrencies basket risk score rose to a new medium risk rating of 40%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) is tracking a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.

The broad GEURR is monitoring a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.

Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.