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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, January 17, 2021

The Australian All-Ords share price index closed fractionally lower (-0.1%) for the week.

America's S&P 500 share index fell by a heftier 1.5% after posting record highs the week before.

Australian Market

The share index which on Friday 8^th January broke the 7,000 barriers, has now fallen below that level. Yet its MACD price momentum has become less negative since Christmas, though has still to go positive. Overall, the market has drifted sideways since December 9^th. 

Since the 20^th of October, the All-Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over.  Indeed, the All-Ords index is just 3.2% shy of its previous peak on Thursday 20^th February 2020.

American Market

Unlike the Australian All Ords index, America’s S&P500 share index shows its recent positive (MACD) momentum went negative again on Friday as the market became more concerned about the possibility of ongoing economic lockdowns because of the vaccination rollout and take-up may take longer than originally anticipated.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily strong. The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and the strength of its V-shaped recovery.  Also, it was such a short flash crash that the index’s long term Coppock momentum indicator never went negative.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

The US stock market risk rose to a low-risk level of 17%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 21%.

The global stock risk rating increased to a low-risk reading of 15%.
The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe climbed to a low-risk level of 12%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

GoldSilverSystem.com

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RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 13%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Australian Market

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December. 

The share index on Friday broke the 7,000 ceiling it last touched on the 17^th December and its MACD price momentum is on the cusp of going positive again.

Since the 20^th of October, the All-Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over.  Indeed, the All-Ords index is just 3.2% shy of its previous peak on Thursday 20^th February 2020. 

American Market

America’s Dow Jones share index shows negative (MACD) momentum since 8^th December has gone positive in the last two trading days.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily strong.  The Dow Jones share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 15^th July (almost 6 weeks after the S&P 500 index did so) confirming the end of America’s bear market and the strength of its V-shaped recovery. 

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Leveraged Momentum

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Australian Market

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December.

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend Analysis

Since the 20^th of October, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well behind us.

American Market

The S&P500 share index has experienced a tougher six months than the All-Ords share index. On the 20^th of October, it plunged to a low that almost rivaled that of the 23^rd of September.  Since then, it has remained strongly bullish on short-to-medium term analysis with its red 10-day trend line well above its green 30-day one.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum is still strong.  The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new low-risk reading of 26%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a new low-risk indication of 8%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

The TSP Strategist

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 20, 2020

Australian Market

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December.

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend Analysis

Since the 20^th of October, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over. 

American Market

The S&P500 share index has a rougher six months than the All-Ords share index. On the 20^th of October, it plunged to a low that almost rivaled that of the 23^rd of September.  Since then, it has remained strongly bullish on short-to-medium term analysis with its red 10-day trend line well above its green 30-day one.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum are still strong. The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Two Corner
(James Gritton)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Australian Market: 

The Australian share market has just completed its strongest month in 32 years. During November, the All Ords index jumped by 11.1% whereas the MSCI world share index rose 7.7% in Australian dollar terms. Over the same period, the Australian dollar’s increased against the US dollar by 5.0%.

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November. Indeed, the market’s pullback in the last week has been the sharpest since October.

Medium-to-long-term Trend Analysis:

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is finally over. 

American Market: 

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is buoyant thanks to earlier news of the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough.  

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November it has climbed to a new record high last Friday.  The main concern with the US equity market is that it continues to overstretch to an extent that has analysts worried that a major pullback or correction is imminent. investors have piled into equity funds, have a high level of confidence about the future, and there is complete evaporation of “short-interest” in the market.

Finally, the REA Pro Market Greed/Fear Gauge is back to extreme greed which often happens at the top of a market.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

WMB
(Richard Warner)

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, November 23, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new medium risk reading of 45%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a low-risk indication of 25%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 22, 2020

American Market:

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is not panicking. Indeed, it reached a record high on the 16^th of November, thanks to just one news story - THE VACCINE BREAKTHROUGH!

But the US S&P500 share index is now experiencing a pullback from its blow off since the end of October.

Australian Market:

In response to Wall Street, the Australian All Ords share index’s advance is beginning to wane. Yet Colin Twiggs, editor of The Patient Investor and owner of Incredible Charts, thinks that any market setback in Australia will be temporary.

Short-to-Medium Term:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator after being green (shifting north),  is now slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections.

Medium-to-Long- Term:

Since the 20^th of October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us by turning upwards.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 23, 2020

This week we can add the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.

However, questions still remain: How much will the spikes in travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas contribute to spikes in infections and deaths? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus?  Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +22.42% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +36.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Gold Risk Update 

Our global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished lower at a new low-risk score of 19%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Australian Market:

Last week the Australian All Ord’s share price index went bullish again on a short-to-medium-term basis. Its red 10-day trend line shot above its green 30-day trend line and its MACD price momentum indicator went strongly positive for the first time in four months.

However, the medium-to-long-term position of the market is still bearish since its green 30-day trend line has not yet overtaken its blue 300-day trendline. Also, its light green Coppock momentum oscillator has not bottomed yet.

American Market: 

Finally, the future of the Australian share market will be largely influenced by what happens to the US share market which accounts for 55% of global stock market capitalization.  On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, America’s S&P500 share index went bullish last week because talks resumed between Democrats and Republicans on a stimulus package deal before the November 3^rd elections.

As mentioned previously America’s S&P500 share price index has been on a roll since it bounced off its low on March 23^rd. Its Coppock momentum indicator confirmed its medium-to-long-term bear market was over by turning up at the start of July. Indeed, the Coppock never went into negative territory as it did in Australia and many other stock markets.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

ProfitScore Capital Management, Inc.

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, August 31, 2020

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, August 31, 2020

Investors continue to push the market higher in response to a modest decline in U.S. coronavirus cases, authorization for plasma treatment, the prospect of rapid Covid-19 testing, and the Fed's promise to keep rates low. Wishes and hopes seem to be offsetting concerns over a reduction in the flow of stimulus and the lack of any vaccine rollout. The question remains: How severe does the impact of the pandemic have to be to destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.56% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +28.53% since tracking began on 11/24/18).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 30, 2020

On short to medium-term trend-following the market remains bullish with the All Ords red 10-day trendline still hovering above its green 30-day trendline. But its brown MACD momentum oscillator has gone marginally negative.

On medium to long-term trend analysis the share market is still bearish but only a whisker away from going bullish. Its green Coppock momentum indicator is still negative and falling.

Both globally and locally, gold bullion is still in front of other sectors based on nine-month relative price momentum. Only IVV (USA market) is showing any positive momentum over that time frame. All other sectors (globally non-US developed markets and emerging markets and domestically resources, finance, and commercial property) are still in the doldrums (i.e. exhibiting negative price momentum).

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, August 31, 2020

Stock Market:

Our Teabull.co Stock Market ST Oscillator is located well below its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term buy signal for the major US Stock Indexes.

Bond Market:

Our Teabull.co Bond Market ST Oscillator is located just above its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term sell signal for the major US Government Bond Indexes.

Gold Market:

Our Teabull.co Gold Market ST Oscillator is located slightly above its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term sell signal for the major US Gold Miner Indexes.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Scarecrow Trading

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Last week, the global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 19%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 16, 2020

America’s S&P 500 share price index is now back to its previous high in mid-February. Its V-shaped recovery is confirmed.  But this is largely due to a handful of tech stocks.

Of the 500 biggest US-listed stocks that make up the S&P500, just five (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft) boosted the index by $1.61 billion since the start of 2020, while all the other 495 stocks jointly depressed the index by $1.66 billion. Without the digital revolution (which has thrived off the pandemic), the American share market would still be in the doldrums.

After languishing since mid-June, the Australian All Ords share index is now picking up momentum as can be seen in the bottom half of the next chart. The MACD momentum oscillator is now positive. And the index’s red ten-day trend line still sits above its blue 30-day trend line showing it remains bullish over a short-to-medium term framework.

On medium-to-long term trend and momentum indicators, the Australian stock markets remain bearish, though it is inching closer to its 30-day trend line overtaking its 300-day one which would be positive. However, its Coppock momentum indicator is still falling and in negative territory. Until it turns up (as it’s done in America) the bear market can’t be declared over.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Charles Capital LLC

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 2, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) decreased to a low-risk reading of 5%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe closed lower at a low-risk indication of 0%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Market Timing in Australia

Monday, August 3, 2020

Historically July is a good month for shares in both Australia and America. But August normally marks the start of a slippery slope in both countries that does not reverse until November/December after which shares rally again.

The S&P500 index on Friday rallied strongly and is now almost back to its post-crash peak on July 22^nd. For the past month, the S&P500 has been in an uptrend whereas the All Ords which mimicked Wall Street until a week ago, has continued its fall.

Gold bullion continues to be the frontrunner amongst major asset classes in Australia and beats every major share market globally.

Here's the position of the Australian share market on a short to medium term basis and a medium to long-term one.

The Australian stock market has been drifting sideways since early June. In the last week, its momentum oscillator has been slightly negative. This means it’s still bullish, but losing its edge. The All Ords index is still bearish on a longer-term framework though the gap between its 30-day trendline and its 300-day one continues to narrow. However,  its Coppock momentum indicator remains negative with no sign yet of reversing course.

By contrast, the US stock market’s trend and momentum remain firmly bullish over both time frames. 

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.