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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, January 17, 2021

The Australian All-Ords share price index closed fractionally lower (-0.1%) for the week.

America's S&P 500 share index fell by a heftier 1.5% after posting record highs the week before.

Australian Market

The share index which on Friday 8^th January broke the 7,000 barriers, has now fallen below that level. Yet its MACD price momentum has become less negative since Christmas, though has still to go positive. Overall, the market has drifted sideways since December 9^th. 

Since the 20^th of October, the All-Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over.  Indeed, the All-Ords index is just 3.2% shy of its previous peak on Thursday 20^th February 2020.

American Market

Unlike the Australian All Ords index, America’s S&P500 share index shows its recent positive (MACD) momentum went negative again on Friday as the market became more concerned about the possibility of ongoing economic lockdowns because of the vaccination rollout and take-up may take longer than originally anticipated.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily strong. The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and the strength of its V-shaped recovery.  Also, it was such a short flash crash that the index’s long term Coppock momentum indicator never went negative.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

The US stock market risk rose to a low-risk level of 17%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 21%.

The global stock risk rating increased to a low-risk reading of 15%.
The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe climbed to a low-risk level of 12%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

GoldSilverSystem.com

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RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 13%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Australian Market

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December. 

The share index on Friday broke the 7,000 ceiling it last touched on the 17^th December and its MACD price momentum is on the cusp of going positive again.

Since the 20^th of October, the All-Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over.  Indeed, the All-Ords index is just 3.2% shy of its previous peak on Thursday 20^th February 2020. 

American Market

America’s Dow Jones share index shows negative (MACD) momentum since 8^th December has gone positive in the last two trading days.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily strong.  The Dow Jones share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 15^th July (almost 6 weeks after the S&P 500 index did so) confirming the end of America’s bear market and the strength of its V-shaped recovery. 

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Leveraged Momentum

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Australian Market

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December.

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend Analysis

Since the 20^th of October, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well behind us.

American Market

The S&P500 share index has experienced a tougher six months than the All-Ords share index. On the 20^th of October, it plunged to a low that almost rivaled that of the 23^rd of September.  Since then, it has remained strongly bullish on short-to-medium term analysis with its red 10-day trend line well above its green 30-day one.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum is still strong.  The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new low-risk reading of 26%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a new low-risk indication of 8%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

The TSP Strategist

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 20, 2020

Australian Market

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December.

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend Analysis

Since the 20^th of October, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over. 

American Market

The S&P500 share index has a rougher six months than the All-Ords share index. On the 20^th of October, it plunged to a low that almost rivaled that of the 23^rd of September.  Since then, it has remained strongly bullish on short-to-medium term analysis with its red 10-day trend line well above its green 30-day one.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum are still strong. The S&P 500 share index’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 4^th of June confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Custodio Asset Management

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, December 13, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a low-risk level of 22%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 20%.

The global stock risk rating increased to a low-risk reading of 17%.
The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe climbed to a low-risk level of 17%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Australia's Market

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and has been negative since the 2^nd of December. After peaking last Wednesday, the index pulled back slightly on Thursday and Friday.

Medium-to-Long-Term Trend Analysis

Since the 20^th of October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly over.

America’s Market

The Dow Jones share index has drifted down slightly since peaking on the 4^th of December.  For the past four days, it has shown negative momentum on the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, on short-to-medium term analysis, it remains strongly bullish with its red 10-day trend line well above its green 30-day one.

The US share market’s medium-to-long term trend and momentum are still strong. As can be seen, Dow’s 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on the 15^th of July confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery.

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Sunday, December 13, 2020

On Friday, the S&P 500 conquered a mid-day drawdown of 1.0% to rest 0.1 percent lower. Similarly, the
Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.6%) partially reversed shortfalls. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average (+0.2%), however, finished positively by a small margin.

Walt Disney (DIS 175.72, +21.03, +13.6%) stocks soared a record-breaking 13.6% because of positive
assertions regarding the expansion of its subscription services. This contributed to the rise of the Dow, and
correspondingly the S&P 500 Communication Services sector (+1.2%).

In terms of the wider market, there was a sag despite a record close from the Russell 2000 on Thursday,
after a number of interesting IPOs, and offerings of risky high growth stocks. Contributing to the
slumping market on Friday was the stagnation of stimulus talks and the closing of indoor dining in New
York due to the coronavirus. The energy (-1.2%) and financial (-1.0%) sectors fell behind on Friday, but
buyers invested in the mid-day dip in the second half of the session halting lows.

In a 17-4 vote, the FDA panel recommended that the Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer (PFE 41.12, -0.61, -
1.5%) and BioNTech (BNTX 127.30, -2.24, -1.7%) be quickly approved for Emergency Use Authorization.

We invite you to join our Teabull Free today.

As a Teabull Free subscriber, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock,
Bond and Gold Miner Indexes! To join Teabull Free please click: Register

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Harloff Capital Management

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Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Every one of the major indices set intraday and closing highs on Friday, as the market remained optimistic in the 2021 recovery narrative despite the mixed November Employment Report.  

In fact, the Russell 2000 rose 2.4 percent, pulling ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.9percent ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8percent ), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%).

Sector gains were paced by the S&P 500 energy industry, which tacked on a second 5.4% gain to its rebound effort.  The Materials (+2.0percent ), Real Estate (+1.3%), and Industrials (+1.2%) sectors were next in line, while the Utilities (-1.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.1percent ) sectors closed reduced. 

The headline jobs data featured a smaller-than-expected 245,000 addition to nonfarm payrolls (Teabullat.com consensus of 725,000) and a 6.7percent unemployment rate (Teabullat.com consensus 6.8%), compared to 6.9percent in October.  Digging deeper, permanent job losses increased by 59,000 to 3.743 million while people out of work for 27 weeks or more accounted for 36.9% of those unemployed in November.

We invite you to join our Teabull Free today. 

As a Teabull Free subscriber, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock, Bond, and Gold Miner Indexes!

To join Teabull ST Free please click: Register

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, December 7, 2020

Uncertainty continues to cause volatility. When will the vaccines be distributed? Will there be negative side effects? How much will the spikes in travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas contribute to spikes in infections and deaths? Will there be another round of stimulus? Which sectors have been permanently reduced--and which ones have permanently increased in prominence?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it rose to its indicator (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA. (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +23.09% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +32.20% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished lower at a medium risk score of 44%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Australia's Market

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and is now negative. But the share index has picked up since last Monday which if it continues to do so would boost its short-to-medium term momentum.

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly behind us. 

America’s Market

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November the S&P500 share index has bounced back and reached a new record high last Friday. 

US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on June 4^th confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery. The bear market itself lasted between the 19^th February and the 23^rd March and witnessed a fall of 33.9% in the S&P500 share index. Also, the crash was not quite as severe as the average fall of 35.6% for the 26 bear markets since 1928.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Two Corner
(James Gritton)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Australian Market: 

The Australian share market has just completed its strongest month in 32 years. During November, the All Ords index jumped by 11.1% whereas the MSCI world share index rose 7.7% in Australian dollar terms. Over the same period, the Australian dollar’s increased against the US dollar by 5.0%.

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November. Indeed, the market’s pullback in the last week has been the sharpest since October.

Medium-to-long-term Trend Analysis:

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is finally over. 

American Market: 

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is buoyant thanks to earlier news of the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough.  

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November it has climbed to a new record high last Friday.  The main concern with the US equity market is that it continues to overstretch to an extent that has analysts worried that a major pullback or correction is imminent. investors have piled into equity funds, have a high level of confidence about the future, and there is complete evaporation of “short-interest” in the market.

Finally, the REA Pro Market Greed/Fear Gauge is back to extreme greed which often happens at the top of a market.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Sojourn Financial Strategies, LLC

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 16, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks continue to be answered. The Biden presidency has been acknowledged. Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech have announced good vaccine test results. However, questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy experienced whiplash last week when it sold UPRO due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low).  (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.38% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +19.82% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

The US stock market risk sunk to a new low-risk level of 17%. US tech stock risk closed lower at a low-risk reading of 19%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) decreased to a new low-risk reading of 24%.

The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe (NAWE) sunk to a new low-risk level of 16%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Short-to-Medium Term Market Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator has been green (shifting north), though now is slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections, the show stopper of the year.

Medium-to-Long- Term Market Analysis:

Since October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The good news last week is that its Coppock momentum indicator finally confirmed the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us. It did so by turning north even though its momentum is still negative.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Triple Crown Timing

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 8, 2020

The Australian share market on both short-to-medium and medium-to-long-term trend analysis remains bullish.

Last Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia stole the thunder from the Melbourne Cup by formally embracing “quantitative easing” (QE). It will buy $100 billion of 5 to 10-year government bonds to suppress their yields and immediately reduce the cash rate in the overnight interbank loan market from 0.25% to a record low 0.1%.

The Australian stock market loved this news since money creation and an almost zero cash rate are the catalysts that triggered asset price booms overseas. Anticipating these changes well in advance of their announcement, the All Ords index jumped 4.3% over the five trading days to Friday 6^th November.

The short-to-medium term trend and momentum for America’s S&P500 index has shifted from gloom to hope in just one week.

Using medium-to-long term trend and momentum analysis the All Ords index remains bullish after briefly flirting with going bearish just over a week ago.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 9, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks have begun to be answered. Many believe a Biden presidency with a split Congress should result in little to no increase in taxes or regulations and in improved relationships with China and other countries. Pfizer/BioNTech's projection of 1.3 billion doses of their vaccine being distributed in 2021 provides some idea of when the pandemic might be under control. Questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO last week when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.43% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +31.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 38%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

W. Wall and Company, Inc.

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Developer Information

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Performance Graph

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Monday, November 2, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last Timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Special situations need special treatment.

As most of you who read our postings regularly might already know, the QMP-signal looks for outperforming the S&P 500 with the same or lower risk which we measure with:

Std Dev - Standard Deviation (Annualized), Down Std Dev - Downside Standard Deviation (Annualized), and Max Draw Peaks - Maximum Drawdown from Peaks.

Regarding the coming US election our analyses showed us:

For owners of US-Dollar:
There is a small advantage for the S+P to gain after the election (Long-positioning) but for the short-side a disadvantage to gain for "TLT". If we would like to stay invested we thus would prefer to swap the short side away from TLT and into shorter duration US-Bonds with a minimum of 1year and a maximum 10year.

For owners of EURO:
As we ourselves are owners of Euro, the situation looks quite different. For now, there are no US-Bonds with a favorable chance-risk ratio available to Euro-owners. So we go FLAT (all cash) into US-elections and wait until the dust settles.

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The Australian All Ords share price index in the last week had its sharpest fall since last April. Its red 10-day trendline is poised to fall below its green 30-day one putting the stock market into bearish territory over the short to medium term. The market’s MACD momentum oscillator is now strongly negative.

On a medium-to-long-term basis, the All Ords share index is still slightly bullish with its green 30-day trendline still holding above its blue 300-day trendline though the gap is narrowing.  It’s Coppock momentum oscillator remains negative. Once the US election is resolved hopefully market uncertainty will dissipate and its bullish trend resume. The approval of a vaccine would reinforce that.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 VIX index is elevated. This index provides an insight into investor sentiment and expected levels of market volatility. It is often referred to as the “fear index”. At present global markets, all have elevated VIX indices because they are nervous about America’s future.

Within Australia gold bullion (GOLD.ax) still rides high on a nine-month momentum price basis. All other sector price indices (Resources, Finance, and Property) have negative price momentum over this period.  Globally, Gold, too, remains king over a nine-month period, with other sector price indices (Emerging Markets, US Market, and other Developing Markets) showing negative momentum over the same period. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 2, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty will continue to be answered in the days and weeks to come: What impact will the results of the U.S. elections have on the markets and the economy? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO Friday when it fell to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it falls below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.53% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +34.50% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) changed to a new medium risk level. The GUSDR finished lower at 54%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.
The cryptocurrencies basket risk score remained unchanged at a medium risk rating of 40%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

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