TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Harloff Capital Management

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Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Every one of the major indices set intraday and closing highs on Friday, as the market remained optimistic in the 2021 recovery narrative despite the mixed November Employment Report.  

In fact, the Russell 2000 rose 2.4 percent, pulling ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.9percent ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8percent ), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%).

Sector gains were paced by the S&P 500 energy industry, which tacked on a second 5.4% gain to its rebound effort.  The Materials (+2.0percent ), Real Estate (+1.3%), and Industrials (+1.2%) sectors were next in line, while the Utilities (-1.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.1percent ) sectors closed reduced. 

The headline jobs data featured a smaller-than-expected 245,000 addition to nonfarm payrolls (Teabullat.com consensus of 725,000) and a 6.7percent unemployment rate (Teabullat.com consensus 6.8%), compared to 6.9percent in October.  Digging deeper, permanent job losses increased by 59,000 to 3.743 million while people out of work for 27 weeks or more accounted for 36.9% of those unemployed in November.

We invite you to join our Teabull Free today. 

As a Teabull Free subscriber, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock, Bond, and Gold Miner Indexes!

To join Teabull ST Free please click: Register

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, December 7, 2020

Uncertainty continues to cause volatility. When will the vaccines be distributed? Will there be negative side effects? How much will the spikes in travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas contribute to spikes in infections and deaths? Will there be another round of stimulus? Which sectors have been permanently reduced--and which ones have permanently increased in prominence?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it rose to its indicator (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA. (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +23.09% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +32.20% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished lower at a medium risk score of 44%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Australia's Market

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November and is now negative. But the share index has picked up since last Monday which if it continues to do so would boost its short-to-medium term momentum.

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is well and truly behind us. 

America’s Market

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November the S&P500 share index has bounced back and reached a new record high last Friday. 

US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum 30-day trendline broke above its 300-day trendline on June 4^th confirming the end of America’s bear market and its V-shaped recovery. The bear market itself lasted between the 19^th February and the 23^rd March and witnessed a fall of 33.9% in the S&P500 share index. Also, the crash was not quite as severe as the average fall of 35.6% for the 26 bear markets since 1928.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Two Corner
(James Gritton)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Australian Market: 

The Australian share market has just completed its strongest month in 32 years. During November, the All Ords index jumped by 11.1% whereas the MSCI world share index rose 7.7% in Australian dollar terms. Over the same period, the Australian dollar’s increased against the US dollar by 5.0%.

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November. Indeed, the market’s pullback in the last week has been the sharpest since October.

Medium-to-long-term Trend Analysis:

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is finally over. 

American Market: 

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is buoyant thanks to earlier news of the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough.  

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November it has climbed to a new record high last Friday.  The main concern with the US equity market is that it continues to overstretch to an extent that has analysts worried that a major pullback or correction is imminent. investors have piled into equity funds, have a high level of confidence about the future, and there is complete evaporation of “short-interest” in the market.

Finally, the REA Pro Market Greed/Fear Gauge is back to extreme greed which often happens at the top of a market.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

WMB
(Richard Warner)

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, November 23, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new medium risk reading of 45%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a low-risk indication of 25%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 22, 2020

American Market:

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is not panicking. Indeed, it reached a record high on the 16^th of November, thanks to just one news story - THE VACCINE BREAKTHROUGH!

But the US S&P500 share index is now experiencing a pullback from its blow off since the end of October.

Australian Market:

In response to Wall Street, the Australian All Ords share index’s advance is beginning to wane. Yet Colin Twiggs, editor of The Patient Investor and owner of Incredible Charts, thinks that any market setback in Australia will be temporary.

Short-to-Medium Term:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator after being green (shifting north),  is now slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections.

Medium-to-Long- Term:

Since the 20^th of October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us by turning upwards.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 23, 2020

This week we can add the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.

However, questions still remain: How much will the spikes in travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas contribute to spikes in infections and deaths? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus?  Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +22.42% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +36.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Sojourn Financial Strategies, LLC

News Items:

Developer Information

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 16, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks continue to be answered. The Biden presidency has been acknowledged. Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech have announced good vaccine test results. However, questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy experienced whiplash last week when it sold UPRO due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low).  (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.38% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +19.82% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

The US stock market risk sunk to a new low-risk level of 17%. US tech stock risk closed lower at a low-risk reading of 19%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) decreased to a new low-risk reading of 24%.

The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe (NAWE) sunk to a new low-risk level of 16%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Short-to-Medium Term Market Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator has been green (shifting north), though now is slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections, the show stopper of the year.

Medium-to-Long- Term Market Analysis:

Since October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The good news last week is that its Coppock momentum indicator finally confirmed the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us. It did so by turning north even though its momentum is still negative.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Triple Crown Timing

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Developer Information

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 8, 2020

The Australian share market on both short-to-medium and medium-to-long-term trend analysis remains bullish.

Last Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia stole the thunder from the Melbourne Cup by formally embracing “quantitative easing” (QE). It will buy $100 billion of 5 to 10-year government bonds to suppress their yields and immediately reduce the cash rate in the overnight interbank loan market from 0.25% to a record low 0.1%.

The Australian stock market loved this news since money creation and an almost zero cash rate are the catalysts that triggered asset price booms overseas. Anticipating these changes well in advance of their announcement, the All Ords index jumped 4.3% over the five trading days to Friday 6^th November.

The short-to-medium term trend and momentum for America’s S&P500 index has shifted from gloom to hope in just one week.

Using medium-to-long term trend and momentum analysis the All Ords index remains bullish after briefly flirting with going bearish just over a week ago.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 9, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks have begun to be answered. Many believe a Biden presidency with a split Congress should result in little to no increase in taxes or regulations and in improved relationships with China and other countries. Pfizer/BioNTech's projection of 1.3 billion doses of their vaccine being distributed in 2021 provides some idea of when the pandemic might be under control. Questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO last week when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.43% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +31.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 38%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

W. Wall and Company, Inc.

News Items:

Developer Information

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Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Monday, November 2, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last Timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Special situations need special treatment.

As most of you who read our postings regularly might already know, the QMP-signal looks for outperforming the S&P 500 with the same or lower risk which we measure with:

Std Dev - Standard Deviation (Annualized), Down Std Dev - Downside Standard Deviation (Annualized), and Max Draw Peaks - Maximum Drawdown from Peaks.

Regarding the coming US election our analyses showed us:

For owners of US-Dollar:
There is a small advantage for the S+P to gain after the election (Long-positioning) but for the short-side a disadvantage to gain for "TLT". If we would like to stay invested we thus would prefer to swap the short side away from TLT and into shorter duration US-Bonds with a minimum of 1year and a maximum 10year.

For owners of EURO:
As we ourselves are owners of Euro, the situation looks quite different. For now, there are no US-Bonds with a favorable chance-risk ratio available to Euro-owners. So we go FLAT (all cash) into US-elections and wait until the dust settles.

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The Australian All Ords share price index in the last week had its sharpest fall since last April. Its red 10-day trendline is poised to fall below its green 30-day one putting the stock market into bearish territory over the short to medium term. The market’s MACD momentum oscillator is now strongly negative.

On a medium-to-long-term basis, the All Ords share index is still slightly bullish with its green 30-day trendline still holding above its blue 300-day trendline though the gap is narrowing.  It’s Coppock momentum oscillator remains negative. Once the US election is resolved hopefully market uncertainty will dissipate and its bullish trend resume. The approval of a vaccine would reinforce that.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 VIX index is elevated. This index provides an insight into investor sentiment and expected levels of market volatility. It is often referred to as the “fear index”. At present global markets, all have elevated VIX indices because they are nervous about America’s future.

Within Australia gold bullion (GOLD.ax) still rides high on a nine-month momentum price basis. All other sector price indices (Resources, Finance, and Property) have negative price momentum over this period.  Globally, Gold, too, remains king over a nine-month period, with other sector price indices (Emerging Markets, US Market, and other Developing Markets) showing negative momentum over the same period. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 2, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty will continue to be answered in the days and weeks to come: What impact will the results of the U.S. elections have on the markets and the economy? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO Friday when it fell to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it falls below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.53% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +34.50% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) changed to a new medium risk level. The GUSDR finished lower at 54%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.
The cryptocurrencies basket risk score remained unchanged at a medium risk rating of 40%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Q5 Research

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 43%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe increased to a low-risk indication of 25%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Thursday, October 29, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The All Ords share index’s 30-day trend line surpassed its 300-day trendline suggesting it’s “all over rover” for the bear market.  When the Coppock momentum indicator turns up it should confirm that the crash of February/March is behind us and the market’s bull rally since March 23^rd is supported not only by trend analysis but also momentum analysis.

On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, the All Ords index remains bullish, but its momentum is slowing. Its 10-day trendline sits comfortably above its 30-day one, but it MACD oscillator while still positive is quickly losing momentum.

Since Wall Street’s NYSE has such a big influence on Bligh Street’s ASX, it’s worth noting that America’s S&P500 index while still bullish is less so than Australia’s All Ords index. Indeed, its MACD momentum oscillator went negative two trading days ago.  The reason for this is that the US market is in animated suspension while awaiting the outcome of the Presidential and Congressional elections on November 3^rd which will decide the course America takes over the next four years.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Merit Advisors, Inc.

News Items:

Developer Information

        Trade           History

Performance Graph

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Australia’s All Ords share price index rose strongly between Friday 2^nd and Tuesday 13^th October. Its red 10-day trendline overshot its 30-day green trendline thereby restoring its bullish status over the short-to-medium-term.  America’s S&P 500 share price index is following a similar path to the Australian All Ords index.

The most important development in the last week is that the All Ords index is on the cusp again of going bullish on a medium-to-long-term basis. Its green 30-day trendline is breaching its blue 300-day trendline. The last time it did that was on Thursday 3^rd September, but it then pulled back.

 If the green line makes a clean break above the blue line on this occasion then Australia’s bear market will be over not just on short-to-medium-term trend analysis, but also on medium-to-long-term trend analysis. However, an ominous sign is that the All Ords index like the S&P 500 index lost significant momentum in the last three days of last week. If this continues it might be a repeat of what happened in early September when the medium-to-long-term trend bear market refused to go bullish. The next week should decide one way or the other.

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Sunday, October 18, 2020

The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:

- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)

- TLT (short positioning)

- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY" (The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:

As Volatility is on the rise, leverage is reduced to 1 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:

As this signal took a lot of time to develop, no single stocks are mentioned.

5. Specials:

As we are entering earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Martone Capital Management, Inc.

Monday, October 19, 2020

The S&P 500 has now risen to as much as 13.3% above its 200-day moving average on historically high bullish sentiment and low put/call ratios. Collectively this warns that a significant and sustained move to new highs is unlikely in Q4 2020 without at least another meaningful corrective decline first.

Our Tactical model remains Risk On as of October 6. However, we caution investors against aggressively putting a lot of "New Money" to work at these levels.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a low-risk level of 33%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 28%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) increased to a new medium risk reading of 43%.
The US, Canada, and Western Europe (NAWE)'s regional stock risk score rose to a low-risk level of 36%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, September 27, 2020

On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, the Australian All Ords share price index remains bearish, notwithstanding the index’s rebound and move back to positive momentum last week. Essentially its red 10-day trendline remains below its green 30-day trendline, though it's red/green colored MACD momentum oscillator is now slightly positive. On medium-to-long-term trend analysis, the All Ords index remains bearish with its green 30-day trendline still below its blue 300 days one and its red Coppock momentum indicator still in negative territory and falling.

Locally, Gold continues to have positive momentum over a 9-month timeframe though has been drifting sideways since March. The other sectors, resources, financials, and property have shown negative momentum over this time period.  Globally, gold also is in front over a 9-month period though languishing since March. The blue American share market is still positive notwithstanding its recent fall. The green Other-Developed markets and the red Emerging markets remain in the doldrums.

It’s been a rough month for US stocks. Until last Thursday the S&P500 futures index was down 7.6% which rates as a “pullback” while the Nasdaq futures index was down 10.9% which amounts to a “correction”. As I have said many times, Wall Street sets the tone for all developed stock markets including Australia’s. Hence where America goes, other markets usually follow.

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, September 28, 2020

S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones 30 Index finish lower for the fourth straight week. However, the Nasdaq Composite bucks’ trend to close higher on the week.

This week was traditional up and down ride for the Equity markets that ultimately left the S&P 500 down 0.6% -- its fourth straight weekly decline.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.8%, and the Russell 2000 declined 4.0%.  The Nasdaq Composite, however, gained 1.1%. 

There was not one single thing traders could latch on to and say this is the reason why equities struggled.  Instead, it was another week filled with events that fed into the general uneasiness and the push lower in the markets seen this month. The information technology (+2.1%), consumer discretionary (+1.2%), and utilities (+1.2percent ) sectors closed higher. However, growth concerns were evident from the declines in the cyclical energy (-8.6%), materials (-4.6%), financials (-4.2%), and industrials (-2.6percent ) sectors.  

We invite you to join our Teabull Free Membership today. 

As a Teabull Free Member, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock, Bond, and Gold Miner Indexes!

To join Teabull ST Free please click: Register

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, September 28, 2020

This week's uncertainty originates in a variety of questions becoming more or less prominent. Will Congress pass another round of stimulus? Will the pandemic spike again? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced? What will the outcome of the U.S. elections be and what impact will it have on the economy and the markets?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.32% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +23.89% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
LevIndex is now invested 100% in UPRO (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Monday, September 28, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new low-risk reading of 19%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a low-risk score of 8%.

Quick info:

A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

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TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

David A. Wagner

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Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, September 14, 2020

Mega-cap growth continues market lag
 
The previous week’s selling continued into the shortened week. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index declined by 2.5percent, the Nasdaq 100 index fell by 4.1percent, the Dow Jones 30 Index lowered by 1.7percent, and the Russell 2000 Index dropped by 2.5percent.
 
The communication services (-3.4percent), information technology (-4.4percent), and financial sectors (-2.4percent) were the largest burden on the market this week. Correspondingly, the energy sector fell 6.4percent, amidst lowering crude costs ($37.34/bbl, -2.36, -5.9%). The only gain was in the materials sector (+0.8percent) which closed higher for a second consecutive week.

We invite you to join our Teabull Free Membership today. 

As a Teabull Free Member, you will gain access to our award-winning Signals for the major US Stock, Bond and Gold Miner Indexes!

To join Teabull Free please click: Register

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Gold Risk Update 

The global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished unchanged at a medium risk score of 44%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, September 13, 2020

Australian Market:

The Australian share market has now gone bearish in terms of short to medium term trend analysis. That was confirmed by its MACD price momentum going negative. As you know from previous bulletins the market’s medium to long term pattern has been negative since the “death cross” of its 30-day and 300-day trend lines on the 12^th March.

Unlike the short to medium term position, the medium to long term one never enjoyed a “golden cross” where it shifted from being bearish to bullish, though it came within a whisker of doing so on the 3^rd September. Its Coppock momentum oscillator has been in negative territory since the 10^th June with no sign yet of its decline reversing.

American Market:

Notwithstanding the recent fallback in large tech stocks, the American S&P500 index’s 10-day trend line still hovers above its 30-day one though its short to medium term MACD price momentum indicator is now more negative than it’s been since the 24^th March.

Also, the S&P500’s 30-day trend line remains above its 300-day-trend line showing that on medium to long term trend analysis America’s stock market remains bullish. This is confirmed by its Coppock momentum indicator which, notwithstanding the severe market crash between 19^th February and the 23^rd March, never went negative unlike the Coppock indicator for Australia.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to broadcast2008@timertrac.com.  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.