TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Equity Defense

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Performance Graph

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, March 7, 2022

Uncertainty regarding Russia's attack of Ukraine, supply chain issues, inflation, rate increases, lower earnings growth, and the pandemic continues to cause volatility.

Our LevBands strategy continues to experience whipsaw whiplash. It bought $UPRO Monday when it rose to the price indicated by its algorithm (buy low) after selling it the week before when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm after (cover your assets). The higher incidence of whipsaw when using this strategy seems to be the primary factor causing its long-term return to be lower than the Leveraged Crosses (LevCrosses) strategy--and that lower return is the reason LevCrosses is a component of the Optimum Mix rather than LevBands. Click through to TimerTrac to see a 21.04% annualized return for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16.  Our LevCrosses strategy is holding $UPRO but has an order scheduled to sell when its indicator falls to the necessary level (cover your assets). Click through to TimerTrac to see a 25.20% annualized return since tracking began on 4/10/18.

TQQQTrends remains in $TQQQ. Click through to TimerTrac to see 31.69% annualized return since tracking began on 11/24/18.  FNGUTrends sold FNGU recently when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets). This strategy will buy FNGU when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low). Click through to TimerTrac to see 127.38% annualized return since tracking began on 4/7/20.

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Our US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) closed at a low-risk level. The GUSDR increased to 27%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) finished higher at a high-risk reading of 100%.
The cryptocurrency basket risk score remained unchanged at a high-risk rating of 92%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, March 5, 2022

The Stock Index Commitments of Traders suggests a strong market is ahead. I will be looking for this bounce to be a lower peak than the February high and then turn down heading for a low lower than the late February low by my next cycle forecast low near April 12. I do not plan on trying to trade the forecast bounce over the next two weeks because when in a downtrend, there is always a potential for overnight events to trigger declines.

Comment on indicators: 

The forecast model looks for a bounce into late March.

The comparison of the current market top to the 1929 classic top pattern shows the market pattern will continue in the potential high volatility window through April.

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. 

Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume has NOT climaxed to the downside and suggests the pattern of lower highs and lower low market declines will continue. 

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Positive
Nasdaq -  Positive
Russell 2000 -  Positive
Gold - Negative 
Silver - Neutral 
Swiss - Neutral positive

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, March 5, 2022

The All-Ords share price index rose by 1.7% over the last week after a 3.1% fall the week before.

On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish on fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will destabilize Europe and push up already high oil, gas, and grain prices. This is adding to existing worries of central banks withdrawing support for bonds and lifting official cash rates to fight runaway inflation.

Before Russia’s move, a Bank of America fund manager survey found that a staggering 83% of respondents cited the monetary policy as the greatest risk to market stability in 2022. That suggested monetary tightening was the only issue weighing heavily on investors' minds.

On medium-to-long term trend analysis, both markets remain bullish through the headspace before they turn bearish is quickly narrowing. Notwithstanding rising interest rates, a rolling pandemic, and now the Ukraine war, the outlook for company earnings globally remains strong. And many companies are using temporary supply shortages to permanently increase their prices and thereby their profit margins.

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