TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19
02/21/2022
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Mojena Market Timing |
(January 29, 2022)
Teabull Asset Timer Ltd adds three new strategies to be tracked called "Teabull Stock Market, Bond Market, and Gold Market."
(January 28, 2022)
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Developer Information |
Trade History |
Performance Graph |
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Sunday, February 20, 2022 Our US stock market risk score rose to a medium risk rating of 54%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a medium risk level of 58%.The global stock risk rating increased to a new medium risk score of 47%. Quick info: A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment. The broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) tracks 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., the US stock market). |
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Saturday, February 19, 2022 The All-Ords share price index fell by 0.2% over the last week following a 1.3% rise the week before. The All-Ords is now 5.3% below its peak on 4th January 2022. On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish reflecting concerns about central banks withdrawing support for bonds and lifting official cash rates to fight runaway inflation. Worries about the disruptive impact of the omicron virus, higher oil and gas prices, and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Crimea are also rattling markets though to a lesser extent. Indeed, a Bank of America fund manager survey found that a staggering 83% of respondents cited the monetary policy as the greatest risk to market stability in 2022. On medium-to-long term trend analysis both markets remain bullish and the correction in stock price indices, other than the NASDAQ, has partially reversed. Notwithstanding rising interest rates and a rolling pandemic, the outlook for company earnings globally remains strong. And many companies are using temporary supply shortages to permanently increase their prices and thereby their profit margins. |
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Saturday, February 19, 2022 My next Stock Market Cycle Forecast turning point is a low next week, then bounce to March 23. Comparison of the current market top to the 1929 Classic top pattern: The Dow Jones Utility average looks like it is on the edge of the 1929 top pattern cliff and about to crash. If we get an interest rate surprise or energy price surprise we could see the utilities crash and spread the crash to the general market. If we don't see an increase in negative volume, I will consider moving to neutral early in the coming week. PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%. Our market lows so far of off 12% suggests we will see lower lows in the next few weeks. New Active Traders Index (volume): Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume. Watch for increasing daily volume to the downside as an indicator of trouble possibly developing into a panic. COT updates: S&P 500 - Neutral Nasdaq - Neutral - near positive Russell 2000 - Positive Gold - Neutral Silver - Neutral Swiss - Neutral |
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