TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Purvis Investments

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Performance Graph

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, February 26, 2022

The All-Ords share price index fell by 3.1% over the last week following a 0.2% fall the week before.

On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish on fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will destabilize Europe and push up already high oil, gas, and grain prices. This is adding to existing worries of central banks withdrawing support for bonds and lifting official cash rates to fight runaway inflation.

On medium-to-long term trend analysis, both markets remain bullish, though the headspace before they turn bearish is quickly narrowing. Notwithstanding rising interest rates, a rolling pandemic, and now the Ukraine war, the outlook for company earnings globally remains strong. And many companies are using temporary supply shortages to permanently increase their prices and thereby their profit margins.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, February 28, 2022

Uncertainty regarding Russia's attack on Ukraine, supply chain issues, inflation, rate increases, less stimulus, lower earnings growth, and the pandemic continues to cause volatility.

Our LevBands strategy continues to experience whipsaw whiplash. It bought $UPRO last week when it rose to the price indicated by its algorithm (buy low) after selling it the week before when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm after (cover your assets). The higher incidence of whipsaw when using this strategy seems to be the primary factor causing its long-term return to be lower than the Leveraged Crosses (LevCrosses) strategy--and that lower return is the reason LevCrosses is a component of the Optimum Mix rather than LevBands. Click through to TimerTrac to see a 22.07% annualized return for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16.

Our LevCrosses strategy is holding $UPRO but has an order scheduled to sell when its indicator falls to the necessary level (cover your assets). Click through to TimerTrac to see 26.83% annualized return since tracking began on 4/10/18.

TQQQTrends remains in $TQQQ. Click through to TimerTrac to see 34.17% annualized return since tracking began on 11/24/18. FNGUTrends sold FNGU recently when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets). This strategy will buy FNGU when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low). Click through to TimerTrac to see 129.34% annualized return since tracking began on 4/7/20.

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, February 27, 2022

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a high-risk rating of 99%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe remained unchanged at a high-risk score of 100%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) tracks sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds).

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

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TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Mojena Market Timing

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, February 20, 2022

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, February 19, 2022

The All-Ords share price index fell by 0.2% over the last week following a 1.3% rise the week before. The All-Ords is now 5.3% below its peak on 4^th January 2022.

On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish reflecting concerns about central banks withdrawing support for bonds and lifting official cash rates to fight runaway inflation.

Worries about the disruptive impact of the omicron virus, higher oil and gas prices, and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Crimea are also rattling markets though to a lesser extent. Indeed, a Bank of America fund manager survey found that a staggering 83% of respondents cited the monetary policy as the greatest risk to market stability in 2022.

On medium-to-long term trend analysis both markets remain bullish and the correction in stock price indices, other than the NASDAQ, has partially reversed. Notwithstanding rising interest rates and a rolling pandemic, the outlook for company earnings globally remains strong. And many companies are using temporary supply shortages to permanently increase their prices and thereby their profit margins. 

Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, February 19, 2022

My next Stock Market Cycle Forecast turning point is a low next week, then bounce to March 23.

Comparison of the current market top  to the 1929 Classic top pattern:

The Dow Jones Utility average looks like it is on the edge of the 1929 top pattern cliff and about to crash. If we get an interest rate surprise or energy price surprise we could see the utilities crash and spread the crash to the general market.

If we don't see an increase in negative volume, I will consider moving to neutral early in the coming week.

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%. Our market lows so far of off 12% suggests we will see lower lows in the next few weeks.

New Active Traders Index (volume):

Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume. Watch for increasing daily volume to the downside as an indicator of trouble possibly developing into a panic.

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Neutral

Nasdaq -  Neutral - near positive

Russell 2000 -  Positive

Gold - Neutral 

Silver - Neutral 

Swiss - Neutral

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

TrendWerk TAAM

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, February 12, 2022

The All-Ords share price index rose by 1.3% over the last week following a 2.1% rise the week before. The market is now back within the price channel established last June. The All-Ords is now 5.2% below its last peak on 4^th January 2022.

On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish over concerns about central banks planning to cease underwriting bonds and to lift official cash rates to fight high inflation. Worries that the omicron virus outbreak is more debilitating than originally envisaged and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Crimea are also rattling markets though to a lesser extent. 

The US share market and the All-Ords index medium-to-long-term trend remain bullish.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, February 13, 2022

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Scarecrow Trading

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, February 6, 2022

Our US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) closed at a low-risk level. The GUSDR increased to 31%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) finished lower at a new medium risk reading of 50%.
The cryptocurrency basket risk score sunk to a high-risk rating of 86%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

Stock Index Timing.com

Sunday, February 6, 2022

My current stock market signal is a sell signal issued on January 12, at 3:40 pm eastern when the S&P was at 4722. On Friday the S&P closed at 4500.

My next Stock Market Cycle Forecast turning point is a low near Feb 21. My targets for the Feb low are 4100, a 15% decline from the 4818 high, and 3950, 18% decline from the 4818 high on the S&P (then 150 S&P point increments, 3800, 3650, etc?). The decline into the target Feb 21 low "could" be much more severe if something triggers an out of control panic.

I will look to close the short position and move to neutral near the Feb 21 target date. I'll wait for a retest of that low before considering a buy signal. 

Comment on indicators: 

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%. Our market lows, so far, of off 12% suggests we will see lower lows in the next few weeks.

New Active Traders Index (volume):

Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume suggest the true market top was in mid-November, and the market bounce has just failed at the December low resistance. WATCH FOR INCREASING DAILY VOLUME TO THE DOWNSIDE AS AN INDICATOR OF TROUBLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO PANIC. 

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell /Neutral

Russell 2000 -  Sell / Neutral

Gold - Neutral 

Silver - Neutral 

Swiss - Neutral 

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, February 5, 2022

Australia's Market

The All-Ords rose by 2.1% over the last week following a 3.0% fall the week before. It is now 6.5% below its last peak on the 4^th of January. Between that peak and the 27^th of January, it dived by 10.2%.

On short-to-medium term trend analysis, the Australian and US equity markets are bearish over concerns about central banks planning to cease underwriting bonds and to lift official cash rates to fight high inflation. Concerns that the omicron virus outbreak is more debilitating than originally envisaged and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Crimea are also rattling markets though to a lesser extent. 

However, on medium-to-long-term trend analysis both markets remain bullish and the correction in stock price indices, other than the NASDAQ, is presently reversing. Notwithstanding rising interest rates and a rolling pandemic, the outlook for company earnings globally remains strong. And many companies can use temporary supply shortages to permanently increase their prices and thereby their profit margins. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, February 7, 2022

Uncertainty regarding supply chain issues, inflation, rate increases, less stimulus, lower earnings growth, the pandemic, and Russia's threat to Ukraine continues to cause volatility.

Our LevBands strategy continues to experience whipsaw whiplash. It sold $UPRO again last week when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets) after being sold and bought during the past few weeks. This strategy will buy $UPRO when it rises to the price indicated by its algorithm (buy low). The higher incidence of whipsaw when using this strategy seems to be the primary factor causing its long-term return to be lower than the Leveraged Crosses (LevCrosses) strategy--and that lower return is the reason LevCrosses is a component of the Optimum Mix rather than LevBands. Click through to TimerTrac to see a 25.03% annualized return for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16.

Our LevCrosses strategy is holding $UPRO but has an order scheduled to sell when its indicator falls to the necessary level (cover your assets). Click through to TimerTrac to see 27.07% annualized return since tracking began on 4/10/18.
TQQQTrends remains in $TQQQ. Click through to TimerTrac to see 37.55% annualized return since tracking began on 11/24/18.
FNGUTrends sold $FNGU recently when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets). This strategy will buy $FNGU when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low). Click through to TimerTrac to see 139.64% annualized return since tracking began on 4/7/20.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.