TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Dynamic Investing
(Thomas M. Lester)

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, January 31, 2022

Uncertainty regarding inflation rate increases, Russia's threat to Ukraine, and the pandemic continues to cause volatility.

Our LevBands strategy continues to experience whipsaw whiplash as it sold $UPRO recently due to its price falling to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets) and then bought it back again yesterday when it rose to its indicator (buy low). The LevBands strategy will sell $UPRO again when it falls to the price indicated by its algorithm. Click through to TimerTrac to see a 25.12% annualized return for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16.

Our LevCrosses strategy is holding $UPRO but has an order scheduled to sell when its indicator falls to the necessary level (cover your assets). Click through to TimerTrac to see 33.47% annualized return since tracking began on 4/10/18.

TQQQTrends remains in $TQQQ. Click through to TimerTrac to see 48.67% annualized return since tracking began on 11/24/18.
FNGUTrends sold FNGU recently when it fell to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets). This strategy will buy FNGU when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low). Click through to TimerTrac to see 184.37% annualized return since tracking began on 4/7/20.

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, January 30, 2022

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed unchanged at a high-risk rating of 100%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe remained unchanged at a high-risk score of 100%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) tracks sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds).

Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, January 29, 2022

The Stock Market Cycle Forecast has an extended decline next week, a choppy bounce to Feb 16, then a decline to Feb 21.

Comment on indicators: 

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%. Our market lows so far of off 12% suggests we will see lower lows in the next few weeks.

New Active Traders Index (volume)  Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume suggest the true market top was in mid-November, and the market break so far does not appear to have set a bottom for the first tradable bounce in what I expect will be called the new bear market and lasts through the end of 2022.

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell

Russell 2000 -  Neutral / Sell

Gold - Neutral 

Silver - Neutral 

Swiss - Neutral 

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, January 29, 2022

Australia's Market

The All-Ords fell by 3.0% over the last week following a 2.9% fall the week before. It is now down by 8.3% since its last peak on the 4^th of January.

The Australian stock market is bearish on short-to-medium-term trend analysis. Its price momentum as measured by its MACD oscillator is now deeply negative. On medium-to-long term trend analysis, the All-Ords index has been bullish since the 20^th of October 2020.

Within Australia, Gold (GOLD) has overtaken Property (SLF.ax) in the front spot on a nine months’ momentum price basis. Finance (OZF.ax) is running third and Resources (QRE.ax) last. Both Finance and Resources are trailing Cash (AAA.ax).

America’s Market

America’s S&P500 share index is bearish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. Its MACD momentum indicator is now deeply negative. The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum indicators remain bullish.

Globally, the US Market (IVV.ax) has kept its lead with Gold (GOLD.ax) in second place and Other Developed Markets (IVE.ax) in third. Emerging Markets (IEM.ax) is languishing last because of Covid-19’s heavy toll on poorer countries.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

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The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Joey Investment

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, January 22, 2022

Australia's Market

The All-Ords fell by 2.9% over the last week following a 0.7% fall the week before. It is down by 5.5% since its last peak on the 4^th of January so now sits at the base of its price channel established last June. The Australian stock market is now bearish on short-to-medium-term trend analysis.  Its price momentum as measured by its MACD oscillator is now steeply negative.

On medium-to-long term trend analysis, the All-Ords index has been bullish since the 20^th of October 2020. The index remains well above its peak before the crash of 2020.

America’s Market

America’s S&P500 share index is now bearish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. Its MACD momentum indicator is now deeply negative. 

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum indicators remain bullish.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, January 23, 2022

Our US stock market risk score rose to a new medium risk rating of 57%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a new medium risk level of 59%.

The global stock risk rating increased to a new medium risk score of 45%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) tracks 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., the US stock market).

Stock Index Timing.com

Sunday, January 23, 2022

My current stock market signal is a sell signal issued on January 12 at 3:40 pm eastern when the S&P was at 4722. On Friday the S&P closed at 4397.

The Stock Market Cycle Forecast for the coming two weeks is as strong a decline in each of the next two weeks as the decline we had this past week. 

Comment on indicators: 

Price to Peak Earnings

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%.

New Active Traders Index (volume)  Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume broke down suggesting the cycle forecast weakness will accelerate into the end of the month.

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell

Russell 2000 -  Neutral / Sell

Gold - Positive

Silver - Positive

Swiss - Positive

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Lussenheide Investment Warrior Report

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Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, January 15, 2022

I moved to a sell signal on January 12, the day of the 618 back high close, The cycle forecast has a heavy down tending move to the end of the month, a choppy bounce, and lower low in mid/late February. I expect this will be a greater than 10% decline which many will call a "correction" and set up the strong bounce shown in my cycle forecast for late February and March.

Comment on indicators: 

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%.

New Active Traders Index (volume)  Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume is near but has not yet broken down suggesting the cycle forecast weakness next week WILL signal the breakdown and accelerate the decline.

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell

Russell 2000 -  Neutral / Sell

Gold - Positive

Silver - Positive

Swiss - Positive

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, January 17, 2022

Uncertainty regarding inflation, rate increases, and the pandemic continues to cause volatility. Our LevBands strategy continues to experience whiplash as it sold UPRO last week due to its price falling to the price indicated by its algorithm (cover your assets). UPRO will be bought when it rises to the price indicated by its algorithm (buy low). Click through to TimerTrac to see a 27.08% annualized return for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16.

Our LevCrosses strategy is holding UPRO but has an order scheduled to sell when its indicator falls to the necessary level (cover your assets). Click through to TimerTrac to see 36.35% annualized return since tracking began on 4/10/18.

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ. Click through to TimerTrac to see 56.61% annualized return since tracking began on 11/24/18.
FNGUTrends remains in FNGU. Click through to TimerTrac to see 206.85% annualized return since tracking began on 4/7/20.

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, January 15, 2022

Australia's Market

The All-Ords fell by 0.7% over the last week following a 0.1% fall the week before. The prospect that higher inflation will usher in higher interest rates caused a rout to tech stocks.

On short-medium term trend analysis, the Australian market is bullish having restored that status three weeks ago. On long-term trend analysis, it has been bullish since the 20^th of October 2020.

America’s Market

America’s S&P500 share index is still bullish on short-to-medium term trend analysis, though its MACD momentum indicator has been negative for the last seven trading days.

The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily bullish. The index is now way above its peak before the crash of 2020.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished lower at a new medium risk score of 43%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Harloff Capital Management

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, January 9, 2022

Our US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) closed at a low-risk level. The GUSDR increased to 23%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) finished lower at a high-risk reading of 62%.
The cryptocurrency basket risk score rose to a high-risk rating of 82%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, January 8, 2022

The cycle forecast has a run-up to the Jan 14, end of the week, maybe higher on the 17th.

When I view the forecast with my active traders index (combined NYSE Nasdaq Advance decline volume) it leads me to believe we will see new market highs in S&P and Dow Industrials, not confirmed by the Nasdaq and Russell small-cap.

Comment on indicators: 

Price to Peak Earnings

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%.

Market Cycle Forecast: The forecast is for an up move in the coming week, followed by a decline.

New Active Traders Index (volume)  Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume suggest we could see new highs in the S&P in the coming week.

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell

Russell 2000 -  Neutral / Sell

Gold - Positive

Silver - Positive

Swiss - Positive

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, January 8, 2022

Australia's Market

Notwithstanding the most turbulent week in months, the All-Ords fell by only 0.1% over the four trading days from Friday 31^st December to Friday 7^th January. On short-medium term trend analysis, the Australian market is bullish having restored that status a fortnight ago. On long-term trend analysis, it has been bullish since the 20^{th of} October 2020.

America's Market

America’s S&P500 share index is bullish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. Its MACD momentum indicator is positive. The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily bullish.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

PrimeCapitalGroup

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Australia's Market

The All-Ords increased by 0.4% last week (which had only 3 trading days because of Christmas) after rising by 1.6% the week before. The index remains within its price channel established last June. Over the last twelve months, the index increased by 13.6%, making 2021 a good year!

On short-medium term trend analysis, the Australian market is bullish having restored that status a fortnight ago. On long-term trend analysis, it has been bullish since the 20^{th of} October 2020.

America's Market

America’s S&P500 share index is bullish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. Its MACD momentum indicator is positive. The US share market’s medium-to-long-term trend and momentum remain extraordinarily bullish.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, January 2, 2022

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed higher at a high-risk rating of 81%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe remained unchanged at a high-risk score of 88%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) tracks sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds).

Stock Index Timing.com

Saturday, January 1, 2022

The cycle forecast is choppy through a peak in the second week of January, then a heavy decline.

I will look to move to a sell signal in the second week of January, and I will recommend vertical bear put spreads targeting my forecast cycle low in February.

Comment on indicators:

PPE: Price to Peak Earnings shows the market overvalued similar to past extremes like the extremely overvalued markets in 2000, 1987, 1973, 1966, 1929,1901. Market lows in the first 90 days after these highs were 19%,41%,15%, 14%, 49%,15%.

Market Cycle Forecast: There are no dominant cycle movements between now and early January. I expect a heavy decline in the last half of January.

New Active Traders Index (volume)  Combined NYSE and Nasdaq advance-decline volume is negative and has signaled a bear market. 

COT updates:

S&P 500 - Sell

Nasdaq -  Sell

Russell 2000 -  Neutral / Sell

Gold - Positive

Silver - Positive

Swiss - Positive

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.