TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19
TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19

TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19

Broadcast ScriptTimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

W. Wall and Company, Inc.

Broadcast Script

News 0.3

News Items:

(October 26, 2020)
PhD Smart Investing adds one new strategy to be tracked called "PhD Smart Investing Dynamic."
(October 26, 2020)
Harloff Capital Management ends the tracking of one strategy called "Harloff University Beta Strategies: US Dollar."
(October 21, 2020)
PING Strategies starts tracking with four strategies called "PING GenX Counter Trend S&P500, Hybrid Momentum Nasdaq 100, Hybrid Momentum S&P 500, and Relative Value."
(October 20, 2020)
Charles Capital LLC ends the tracking of one strategy called "Charles Capital Leveraged Nasdaq."
(September 21, 2020)
Teabull Asset Timer Ltd changes the name of six strategies from "Teabull Stock Market ST/MT, Bond Market ST/MT, and Gold Market ST/MT" to "Teabull ST/MT Stock Market Premium, ST/MT Gold Market Premium, and ST/MT Bond Market Premium."
(September 18, 2020)
Two Corner ends the tracking of three strategies called "Two Corner Double Drop, RSI(2) IBS, and Flow Past".
(September 16, 2020)
KMW Timing, LLC ends tracking of one strategy called "KMW Timing TQQQ/SQQQ."
(September 1, 2020)
Michael Hartmann adds one new strategy to be tracked called "Michael Hartmann Maximum Return."
(August 31, 2020)
ReturnStream LLC adds one new strategy to be tracked called "ReturnStream DIVERSIFIED."
(August 28, 2020)
Michael Hartmann starts tracking with four strategies called "Michael Hartmann Rapid Response-Equity, Rapid Response-Bonds, Daily ETF, and Timed Sectors."
(August 27, 2020)
Pickens Asset Management adds one new strategy to be tracked called "Pickens Asset Management Hybrid."

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Developer Information

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        Trade           History

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Performance Graph

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Monday, November 2, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last Timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Special situations need special treatment.

As most of you who read our postings regularly might already know, the QMP-signal looks for outperforming the S&P 500 with the same or lower risk which we measure with:

Std Dev - Standard Deviation (Annualized), Down Std Dev - Downside Standard Deviation (Annualized), and Max Draw Peaks - Maximum Drawdown from Peaks.

Regarding the coming US election our analyses showed us:

For owners of US-Dollar:
There is a small advantage for the S+P to gain after the election (Long-positioning) but for the short-side a disadvantage to gain for "TLT". If we would like to stay invested we thus would prefer to swap the short side away from TLT and into shorter duration US-Bonds with a minimum of 1year and a maximum 10year.

For owners of EURO:
As we ourselves are owners of Euro, the situation looks quite different. For now, there are no US-Bonds with a favorable chance-risk ratio available to Euro-owners. So we go FLAT (all cash) into US-elections and wait until the dust settles.

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The Australian All Ords share price index in the last week had its sharpest fall since last April. Its red 10-day trendline is poised to fall below its green 30-day one putting the stock market into bearish territory over the short to medium term. The market’s MACD momentum oscillator is now strongly negative.

On a medium-to-long-term basis, the All Ords share index is still slightly bullish with its green 30-day trendline still holding above its blue 300-day trendline though the gap is narrowing.  It’s Coppock momentum oscillator remains negative. Once the US election is resolved hopefully market uncertainty will dissipate and its bullish trend resume. The approval of a vaccine would reinforce that.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 VIX index is elevated. This index provides an insight into investor sentiment and expected levels of market volatility. It is often referred to as the “fear index”. At present global markets, all have elevated VIX indices because they are nervous about America’s future.

Within Australia gold bullion (GOLD.ax) still rides high on a nine-month momentum price basis. All other sector price indices (Resources, Finance, and Property) have negative price momentum over this period.  Globally, Gold, too, remains king over a nine-month period, with other sector price indices (Emerging Markets, US Market, and other Developing Markets) showing negative momentum over the same period. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 2, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty will continue to be answered in the days and weeks to come: What impact will the results of the U.S. elections have on the markets and the economy? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO Friday when it fell to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it falls below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.53% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +34.50% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.


Sunday, November 1, 2020

The US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) changed to a new medium risk level. The GUSDR finished lower at 54%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.
The cryptocurrencies basket risk score remained unchanged at a medium risk rating of 40%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.