TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Two Corner
(James Gritton)

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 29, 2020

Australian Market: 

The Australian share market has just completed its strongest month in 32 years. During November, the All Ords index jumped by 11.1% whereas the MSCI world share index rose 7.7% in Australian dollar terms. Over the same period, the Australian dollar’s increased against the US dollar by 5.0%.

Short-to-Medium-Term Trend Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one, but its MACD momentum oscillator has been slowing since mid-November. Indeed, the market’s pullback in the last week has been the sharpest since October.

Medium-to-long-term Trend Analysis:

Since the 20^th October 20^th, the Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since 2007-09) is finally over. 

American Market: 

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is buoyant thanks to earlier news of the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough.  

After experiencing a small pullback between the 16^th and 20^th November it has climbed to a new record high last Friday.  The main concern with the US equity market is that it continues to overstretch to an extent that has analysts worried that a major pullback or correction is imminent. investors have piled into equity funds, have a high level of confidence about the future, and there is complete evaporation of “short-interest” in the market.

Finally, the REA Pro Market Greed/Fear Gauge is back to extreme greed which often happens at the top of a market.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

WMB
(Richard Warner)

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, November 23, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed lower at a new medium risk reading of 45%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe decreased to a low-risk indication of 25%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 22, 2020

American Market:

Notwithstanding America’s biggest political and health crisis in decades, its stock market is not panicking. Indeed, it reached a record high on the 16^th of November, thanks to just one news story - THE VACCINE BREAKTHROUGH!

But the US S&P500 share index is now experiencing a pullback from its blow off since the end of October.

Australian Market:

In response to Wall Street, the Australian All Ords share index’s advance is beginning to wane. Yet Colin Twiggs, editor of The Patient Investor and owner of Incredible Charts, thinks that any market setback in Australia will be temporary.

Short-to-Medium Term:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator after being green (shifting north),  is now slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections.

Medium-to-Long- Term:

Since the 20^th of October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The Coppock momentum indicator confirms the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us by turning upwards.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 23, 2020

This week we can add the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.

However, questions still remain: How much will the spikes in travel for Thanksgiving and Christmas contribute to spikes in infections and deaths? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus?  Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +22.42% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +36.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Sojourn Financial Strategies, LLC

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 16, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks continue to be answered. The Biden presidency has been acknowledged. Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech have announced good vaccine test results. However, questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors have been permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy experienced whiplash last week when it sold UPRO due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) but will buy UPRO again when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low).  (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.38% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +19.82% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

The US stock market risk sunk to a new low-risk level of 17%. US tech stock risk closed lower at a low-risk reading of 19%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) decreased to a new low-risk reading of 24%.

The regional stock risk score of the US, Canada, and Western Europe (NAWE) sunk to a new low-risk level of 16%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Short-to-Medium Term Market Analysis:

Since bottoming on the 2^nd October, the Australian All Ords share index has been bullish on short-to-medium term trend and momentum analysis. Its 10-day trend line has stayed above its 30-day one and its MACD momentum oscillator has been green (shifting north), though now is slowing down. If this continues the market may endure another pullback as it did in the second half of October over uncertainty in the runup to the US Presidential and Congressional elections, the show stopper of the year.

Medium-to-Long- Term Market Analysis:

Since October 20^th, the All Ords index has been bullish on medium-to-long-term trend analysis because its 30-day trend line has been above its 300-day one. The good news last week is that its Coppock momentum indicator finally confirmed the Australian share market crash of February-March (the first crash since the 2007-09 global financial crisis) is finally behind us. It did so by turning north even though its momentum is still negative.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Triple Crown Timing

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 8, 2020

The Australian share market on both short-to-medium and medium-to-long-term trend analysis remains bullish.

Last Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia stole the thunder from the Melbourne Cup by formally embracing “quantitative easing” (QE). It will buy $100 billion of 5 to 10-year government bonds to suppress their yields and immediately reduce the cash rate in the overnight interbank loan market from 0.25% to a record low 0.1%.

The Australian stock market loved this news since money creation and an almost zero cash rate are the catalysts that triggered asset price booms overseas. Anticipating these changes well in advance of their announcement, the All Ords index jumped 4.3% over the five trading days to Friday 6^th November.

The short-to-medium term trend and momentum for America’s S&P500 index has shifted from gloom to hope in just one week.

Using medium-to-long term trend and momentum analysis the All Ords index remains bullish after briefly flirting with going bearish just over a week ago.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 9, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty during the past few weeks have begun to be answered. Many believe a Biden presidency with a split Congress should result in little to no increase in taxes or regulations and in improved relationships with China and other countries. Pfizer/BioNTech's projection of 1.3 billion doses of their vaccine being distributed in 2021 provides some idea of when the pandemic might be under control. Questions still remain: Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO last week when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.43% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +31.26% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Our gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 38%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a relatively high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) measures the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

W. Wall and Company, Inc.

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Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Monday, November 2, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last Timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Special situations need special treatment.

As most of you who read our postings regularly might already know, the QMP-signal looks for outperforming the S&P 500 with the same or lower risk which we measure with:

Std Dev - Standard Deviation (Annualized), Down Std Dev - Downside Standard Deviation (Annualized), and Max Draw Peaks - Maximum Drawdown from Peaks.

Regarding the coming US election our analyses showed us:

For owners of US-Dollar:
There is a small advantage for the S+P to gain after the election (Long-positioning) but for the short-side a disadvantage to gain for "TLT". If we would like to stay invested we thus would prefer to swap the short side away from TLT and into shorter duration US-Bonds with a minimum of 1year and a maximum 10year.

For owners of EURO:
As we ourselves are owners of Euro, the situation looks quite different. For now, there are no US-Bonds with a favorable chance-risk ratio available to Euro-owners. So we go FLAT (all cash) into US-elections and wait until the dust settles.

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The Australian All Ords share price index in the last week had its sharpest fall since last April. Its red 10-day trendline is poised to fall below its green 30-day one putting the stock market into bearish territory over the short to medium term. The market’s MACD momentum oscillator is now strongly negative.

On a medium-to-long-term basis, the All Ords share index is still slightly bullish with its green 30-day trendline still holding above its blue 300-day trendline though the gap is narrowing.  It’s Coppock momentum oscillator remains negative. Once the US election is resolved hopefully market uncertainty will dissipate and its bullish trend resume. The approval of a vaccine would reinforce that.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 VIX index is elevated. This index provides an insight into investor sentiment and expected levels of market volatility. It is often referred to as the “fear index”. At present global markets, all have elevated VIX indices because they are nervous about America’s future.

Within Australia gold bullion (GOLD.ax) still rides high on a nine-month momentum price basis. All other sector price indices (Resources, Finance, and Property) have negative price momentum over this period.  Globally, Gold, too, remains king over a nine-month period, with other sector price indices (Emerging Markets, US Market, and other Developing Markets) showing negative momentum over the same period. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, November 2, 2020

The questions contributing to market uncertainty will continue to be answered in the days and weeks to come: What impact will the results of the U.S. elections have on the markets and the economy? Will the new congress pass another round of stimulus? How severe will the pandemic spike be this winter? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO Friday when it fell to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it falls below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +21.53% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +34.50% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

The US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) changed to a new medium risk level. The GUSDR finished lower at 54%.
The EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.
The cryptocurrencies basket risk score remained unchanged at a medium risk rating of 40%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) tracks a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR monitors a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.