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Q5 Research

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 43%.
The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe increased to a low-risk indication of 25%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Thursday, October 29, 2020

On the 28th of October 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. Basic:
The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:
- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)
- TLT (short positioning)
- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY". Both "TLT" and "SPY" had been reduced.
(The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:
As we expected in our last timertrac-broadcast, Volatility continued to rise. Thus, leverage is kept at 1.0 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:
From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:
some that have been too low priced are: CB
and some that have been too high priced are DIN, MSFT, FEYE, HESS, AKAM, WYND, ANTM, BSX, EAT

5. Specials:
- As we are now in earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

- The new subscription fee for the signal is now 20$ per month or 200$ per year for individual investors.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The All Ords share index’s 30-day trend line surpassed its 300-day trendline suggesting it’s “all over rover” for the bear market.  When the Coppock momentum indicator turns up it should confirm that the crash of February/March is behind us and the market’s bull rally since March 23^rd is supported not only by trend analysis but also momentum analysis.

On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, the All Ords index remains bullish, but its momentum is slowing. Its 10-day trendline sits comfortably above its 30-day one, but it MACD oscillator while still positive is quickly losing momentum.

Since Wall Street’s NYSE has such a big influence on Bligh Street’s ASX, it’s worth noting that America’s S&P500 index while still bullish is less so than Australia’s All Ords index. Indeed, its MACD momentum oscillator went negative two trading days ago.  The reason for this is that the US market is in animated suspension while awaiting the outcome of the Presidential and Congressional elections on November 3^rd which will decide the course America takes over the next four years.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Merit Advisors, Inc.

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Australia’s All Ords share price index rose strongly between Friday 2^nd and Tuesday 13^th October. Its red 10-day trendline overshot its 30-day green trendline thereby restoring its bullish status over the short-to-medium-term.  America’s S&P 500 share price index is following a similar path to the Australian All Ords index.

The most important development in the last week is that the All Ords index is on the cusp again of going bullish on a medium-to-long-term basis. Its green 30-day trendline is breaching its blue 300-day trendline. The last time it did that was on Thursday 3^rd September, but it then pulled back.

 If the green line makes a clean break above the blue line on this occasion then Australia’s bear market will be over not just on short-to-medium-term trend analysis, but also on medium-to-long-term trend analysis. However, an ominous sign is that the All Ords index like the S&P 500 index lost significant momentum in the last three days of last week. If this continues it might be a repeat of what happened in early September when the medium-to-long-term trend bear market refused to go bullish. The next week should decide one way or the other.

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Sunday, October 18, 2020

The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:

- Cash/MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)

- TLT (short positioning)

- SPY (long positioning)

2. Long/Short/Cash:
The actual signal favors "Cash (MMF)" over "TLT" and "TLT" over "SPY" (The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Leverage:

As Volatility is on the rise, leverage is reduced to 1 (Meaning: no leverage).

4. Single Stocks:

As this signal took a lot of time to develop, no single stocks are mentioned.

5. Specials:

As we are entering earnings season, expect the next QMP-signal to develop fast (approx. 2 weeks).

Martone Capital Management, Inc.

Monday, October 19, 2020

The S&P 500 has now risen to as much as 13.3% above its 200-day moving average on historically high bullish sentiment and low put/call ratios. Collectively this warns that a significant and sustained move to new highs is unlikely in Q4 2020 without at least another meaningful corrective decline first.

Our Tactical model remains Risk On as of October 6. However, we caution investors against aggressively putting a lot of "New Money" to work at these levels.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, October 18, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a low-risk level of 33%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 28%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) increased to a new medium risk reading of 43%.
The US, Canada, and Western Europe (NAWE)'s regional stock risk score rose to a low-risk level of 36%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe).

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

KT Number

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Gold Risk Update 

Our global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished lower at a new low-risk score of 19%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Australian Market:

Last week the Australian All Ord’s share price index went bullish again on a short-to-medium-term basis. Its red 10-day trend line shot above its green 30-day trend line and its MACD price momentum indicator went strongly positive for the first time in four months.

However, the medium-to-long-term position of the market is still bearish since its green 30-day trend line has not yet overtaken its blue 300-day trendline. Also, its light green Coppock momentum oscillator has not bottomed yet.

American Market: 

Finally, the future of the Australian share market will be largely influenced by what happens to the US share market which accounts for 55% of global stock market capitalization.  On short-to-medium-term trend analysis, America’s S&P500 share index went bullish last week because talks resumed between Democrats and Republicans on a stimulus package deal before the November 3^rd elections.

As mentioned previously America’s S&P500 share price index has been on a roll since it bounced off its low on March 23^rd. Its Coppock momentum indicator confirmed its medium-to-long-term bear market was over by turning up at the start of July. Indeed, the Coppock never went into negative territory as it did in Australia and many other stock markets.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

Joey Investment

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, October 5, 2020

New questions have been added to the mix this week: Will President Trump recover quickly? How will his illness impact the election? What impact will the election have on the markets and the economy? When added to the previous questions, increased uncertainty and volatility seem inevitable. Will Congress pass another round of stimulus? Will the pandemic spike again? When will a vaccine be available? When will the majority of people be vaccinated? Which sectors will recover and which are permanently reduced?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +17.62% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +20.65% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Monday, October 5, 2020

The global US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) changed to a new high-risk level. The GUSDR finished higher at 73%.

The global EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.

The global cryptocurrencies basket risk score rose to a new high-risk rating of 69%.

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) is tracking a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.

The broad GEURR is monitoring a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.

Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, October 4, 2020

The Australian All Ords share price index continues to be bearish on short-to-medium term trend analysis. Its red 10-day trendline still below its green 30-day one and its brown MACD momentum indicator has turned negative again.

On medium to long-term trend analysis, the All Ords has been bearish since March. Its dalliance with almost going bullish in late August/early September is over with its green 30-day trendline now falling away from its blue 300-day trendline. Its brown Coppock momentum indicator continues to fall. Until it turns up we can’t be confident the bear market is over.

Both the bearish and bullish scenarios have merit, but both cannot be right. Either the future is bright or bleak unless of course we just muddle through. In any case, the only way to know what is happening is to trend-follow what the market actually does. There is no guesswork in that. And as of last Friday, its position was bearish.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.