TimerTrac Developer Spotlight:

ProfitScore Capital Management, Inc.

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, August 31, 2020

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, August 31, 2020

Investors continue to push the market higher in response to a modest decline in U.S. coronavirus cases, authorization for plasma treatment, the prospect of rapid Covid-19 testing, and the Fed's promise to keep rates low. Wishes and hopes seem to be offsetting concerns over a reduction in the flow of stimulus and the lack of any vaccine rollout. The question remains: How severe does the impact of the pandemic have to be to destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.56% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +28.53% since tracking began on 11/24/18).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 30, 2020

On short to medium-term trend-following the market remains bullish with the All Ords red 10-day trendline still hovering above its green 30-day trendline. But its brown MACD momentum oscillator has gone marginally negative.

On medium to long-term trend analysis the share market is still bearish but only a whisker away from going bullish. Its green Coppock momentum indicator is still negative and falling.

Both globally and locally, gold bullion is still in front of other sectors based on nine-month relative price momentum. Only IVV (USA market) is showing any positive momentum over that time frame. All other sectors (globally non-US developed markets and emerging markets and domestically resources, finance, and commercial property) are still in the doldrums (i.e. exhibiting negative price momentum).

Teabull Asset Timer Ltd

Monday, August 31, 2020

Stock Market:

Our Teabull.co Stock Market ST Oscillator is located well below its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term buy signal for the major US Stock Indexes.

Bond Market:

Our Teabull.co Bond Market ST Oscillator is located just above its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term sell signal for the major US Government Bond Indexes.

Gold Market:

Our Teabull.co Gold Market ST Oscillator is located slightly above its TBX Index. Thus, as of the close of trade on August 31/20, we are on a short-term sell signal for the major US Gold Miner Indexes.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Glance Financial Advisors LLC

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 23, 2020

For America, the stock market crash is over and it marks the shortest bear market in history. 

In the first place, the S&P 500 is trading in the upper 90% of its historical valuation levels. Secondly, the S&P 500 trades at the greatest deviation on record from its long-term exponential trend suggesting that it is in an extreme price bubble. Also, the OECD’s leading composite economic indicator to July suggests America is lagging the developed world a whole in its recovery. Finally, company share buybacks this year are expected to be only half what they were last year, yet this is what drove the share rally since 2009.

But notwithstanding the high risk posed by the ongoing pandemic, the depressed economy, and a bubble stock exchange, the S&P500 is over its recent flash crash and continues to be bullish.

As for Australia, the market remains bullish on a short to medium-term basis. Also, its MACD price momentum remains slightly positive. On a medium to longer-term basis, its green 30-day trend line has almost caught up with its blue 300-day trend line, but its long term red Coppock momentum indicator is still falling and is in negative territory. Hence it remains bearish though is slowly clawing its way back.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 23, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a new medium risk level of 46%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 41%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) increased to a medium risk reading of 45%.
The regional stock risk score for the US, Canada, and Western Europe rose to a new medium reading of 45%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe). 

Quantified Market Psychology (QMP)

Monday, August 24, 2020

On the 20th of August 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. This signal was what we call an exception-signal as it evolved a lot faster than usual. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. The QMP-signal distributes its allocations between:

- MoneyMarketFund (neutral positioning)

- TLT (short positioning)

- SPY (long positioning)

2. The actual signal favors "TLT" over "SPY". (The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

3. Because of this signal having the characteristics of being an exception-signal, the actual leverage was reduced to 1.5.

4. From the QMP-analyses of single stocks, it shows that:

too low priced have been: MAR, RCL, NLS and too high priced have been: WMT, QLYS, HD, KSS. 

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, August 24, 2020

Investors continue to push the market higher in response to a modest decline in U.S. coronavirus cases and authorization for plasma treatment. Wishes and hopes seem to be offsetting concerns over a reduction in the flow of stimulus. The question remains: How severe does the impact of the pandemic have to be to destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its stop price (CYA) and will buy UPRO when it drops below its lower band and then rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.65% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16). TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +28.57% since tracking began on 11/24/18).

LevIndex is invested 100% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Scarecrow Trading

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Last week, the global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished higher at a low-risk score of 19%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 16, 2020

America’s S&P 500 share price index is now back to its previous high in mid-February. Its V-shaped recovery is confirmed.  But this is largely due to a handful of tech stocks.

Of the 500 biggest US-listed stocks that make up the S&P500, just five (Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft) boosted the index by $1.61 billion since the start of 2020, while all the other 495 stocks jointly depressed the index by $1.66 billion. Without the digital revolution (which has thrived off the pandemic), the American share market would still be in the doldrums.

After languishing since mid-June, the Australian All Ords share index is now picking up momentum as can be seen in the bottom half of the next chart. The MACD momentum oscillator is now positive. And the index’s red ten-day trend line still sits above its blue 30-day trend line showing it remains bullish over a short-to-medium term framework.

On medium-to-long term trend and momentum indicators, the Australian stock markets remain bearish, though it is inching closer to its 30-day trend line overtaking its 300-day one which would be positive. However, its Coppock momentum indicator is still falling and in negative territory. Until it turns up (as it’s done in America) the bear market can’t be declared over.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

QQQTrading.com

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, August 9, 2020

Australian market: On short to medium term basis the black All Ords index continues to be bullish since its red 10-day trend line is still above its blue 30-day one. But the distance between the 10-day and 30-day trend lines has narrowed since the market’s price momentum (MACD) went largely negative from the middle of June. What this means is that the market’s positive trend between March 27^th and June 12^th has lost steam. For the past two months, the All Ords index has meandered sideways. 

On a medium to the longer-term basis, the market is still bearish because its red 30-day trend line has not yet caught up to let alone overtaken its 300-day trendline. But the gap between these trend lines is narrowing even though the Coppock momentum indicator is still falling and remains in negative territory. When the Coppock indicator turns up we will know the bear market is over.

American market: The situation in the USA is much more bullish than in Australia and other markets. The S&P500 index’s red 30-day trend line overtook its 300-day trend line on the 4^th June and its Coppock momentum indicator always stayed in positive territory and turned up on the 30^th of June. The flash crash between February 19^th and March 23^rd underwent a quick V-shaped bounce back. The S&P500 index last Friday was only 1% off its record peak on February 19^th. That’s not to say the share index won’t roll over again, but for now, America’s bear market is over.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 9, 2020

The global US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) remained at a high-risk level. The GUSDR finished unchanged at 81%.
The global EUR risk rating (GEURR) closed lower at a low-risk reading of 8%.
The global cryptocurrencies basket risk score sunk to a low-risk rating of 25%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) is tracking a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates, such as the EUR/USD pair.
The broad GEURR is monitoring a basket of 14 primary EUR cross rates, such as the USD/EUR exchange rate.
Our global cryptocurrencies basket seeks to measure the risk of cryptocurrencies investments denominated in USD.

1german

Monday, August 10, 2020

On the 7th of August 2020 the QMP (Quantified Market Psychology)-strategy gave a new signal. The new signal included the following specifications:

1. The signal is netto short (which means netto long "TLT"). (The actual percentages are reserved for subscribers of the signal).

2. The actual 1-Year risk parameters of the QMP-signal allow for a leverage of 2.5 (and are even still much lower than those of the S+P500 even after applying a 2.5 leverage).

3. From the QMP-analyses of single stocks it shows that:

The too low priced have been: H, FUN, PBPB, HLT, NCLH, TMUS, SSP, BOOT, DIS, GDDY, SAIL, and DXC

The too high priced have been: ABC, WEN, BYND, ADT, FTNT, SVMK, AIG, MNK, ATVI, MCHP, UPWK, TWLD, ANET, FOX, LL, CVS, REGN, NYT, ALB, KTB and DBX

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Charles Capital LLC

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, August 2, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) decreased to a low-risk reading of 5%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe closed lower at a low-risk indication of 0%.

Quick info:
A risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global bond risk rating (GBMR) is tracking sovereign debt issued by the 21 most important countries (e.g., US Treasury Bonds). The GBMR consists of three regional risk ratings.

Market Timing in Australia

Monday, August 3, 2020

Historically July is a good month for shares in both Australia and America. But August normally marks the start of a slippery slope in both countries that does not reverse until November/December after which shares rally again.

The S&P500 index on Friday rallied strongly and is now almost back to its post-crash peak on July 22^nd. For the past month, the S&P500 has been in an uptrend whereas the All Ords which mimicked Wall Street until a week ago, has continued its fall.

Gold bullion continues to be the frontrunner amongst major asset classes in Australia and beats every major share market globally.

Here's the position of the Australian share market on a short to medium term basis and a medium to long-term one.

The Australian stock market has been drifting sideways since early June. In the last week, its momentum oscillator has been slightly negative. This means it’s still bullish, but losing its edge. The All Ords index is still bearish on a longer-term framework though the gap between its 30-day trendline and its 300-day one continues to narrow. However,  its Coppock momentum indicator remains negative with no sign yet of reversing course.

By contrast, the US stock market’s trend and momentum remain firmly bullish over both time frames. 

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.