TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Palm Island Investments

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Performance Graph

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, July 5, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) decreased to a low-risk reading of 14%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe closed higher at a low-risk indication of 13%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, July 5, 2020

The financial year 2019/20 posted the worst market return since 2012. The All Ords share price index between Friday 28^th June 2019 and Tuesday 30^th June 2020 fell from almost 6,700 to 6,000; a drop of 10.4%. The flash crash from its high of 7,155 on the 20^th February to its low of 4,464 on the 23^rd March wiped 36.2% off its value. The All Ords index as of last Friday had recovered 62% of the ground it lost in the crash.

The recent market crash and rebound demonstrated the greatest market volatility in the 50-year history of the All Ords index.

On a short to medium-term perspective, the All Ords came close to going bearish at the start of last week, but then picked up momentum to reconfirm the rally it’s enjoyed for the last 15 weeks.

On a medium to long-term horizon, the All Ords is still in a bear market. Its Coppock momentum oscillator is still heading south and in negative territory. As for July, it’s typically the best month of the year for share markets.

Markets remain overvalued notwithstanding most still being well below their highs of February 20^th, 2020. But the clarion call of brokers is “there is no alternative” since Australian shares still deliver average dividends of 4.2% (with a forward estimate of 3.2%) whereas bank term deposits and government bonds yield at best only 1.0%.  That’s what’s driving retail investors into shares.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, July 6, 2020

Investors continue to focus on glimpses of hope rather than the spike in coronavirus cases. The positive increase in U.S. service sector numbers, the extension of the PPP deadline, probability of another round of stimulus payments, and an uptick in China's stock market seem to be offsetting concerns over the coronavirus spike in many states and a reduction in the flow of stimulus from the Fed. The question remains: How high does the spike need to be before the consequences and necessary countermeasures destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +17.96% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -3.42% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +8.33% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.75% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

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