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Reppond Investments, Inc.

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Here's the short-to-medium term position of the stock market.

The Australian All Ords index’s red 10-day trendline fell below its blue 30-day trendline on the 26^th of February (confirming the market slump) and then reversed position on the 27^th April (confirming the market rally). The market’s MACD momentum oscillator is still positive, but slowing in the last few days.

Trend-tracking gets no better than this since it’s involved no whipsaws, just a sharp drop down and a steady rise up. The All Ords index is now back to the level it was at in December 2019 and only 5% off its all-time peak on the 19^th February.

Here’s how the medium-to-long term position looks.

The market is still bearish, but the All Ords index’s red-30 day trend line is edging closer to its 300-day trendline. The Coppock momentum indicator is in negative territory and still falling. Until it reverses the bear market can’t be declared over.

By contrast, the US share market crash is over. Not only has the S&P 500 index’s red 30-day trend line surpassed its blue 300-day trendline, but its green Coppock momentum oscillator has stayed in positive territory and has now turned up. The crash like that of October 1987 was a flash crash, but unlike then the market has quickly snapped back, the fastest rebound since 1938. Driving the US share market is the technology sector, especially the mega-cap stocks of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Alphabet (Google) which are outpacing the S&P 500.

RISXX Inc.

Monday, July 27, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a new medium risk level of 40%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 42%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) increased to a medium risk reading of 49%.
The regional stock risk score for the US, Canada, and Western Europe rose to a new medium reading of 45%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% indicates a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad global stock risk rating (GSMR) is tracking 101 stock markets of developed and emerging countries (e.g., US stock market). The GSMR consists of eight regional stock risk ratings (e.g., for the US, Canada, and Western Europe). 

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TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

PhD Smart Investing

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RISXX Inc.

Monday, July 20, 2020

The global gold risk rating (GXAUR) finished unchanged at a low-risk score of 0%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

The comprehensive and broad gold risk rating (GXAUR) seeks to measure the risk of spot gold investments denominated in USD.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, July 20, 2020

Investors continue to push the market higher in spite of the spike in coronavirus cases. Wishes and hopes seem to be offsetting concerns over the coronavirus spike in many states and a reduction in the flow of stimulus. The question remains: How high does the spike need to be before the consequences and necessary countermeasures destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy is in UPRO with an order scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +17.38% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -2.11% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +14.76% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -14.74% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Monday, July 20, 2020

S&P 500 earnings had a sharp drop in the March quarter. Falls were worst in Energy with Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Communications also hard hit. But for the next three-quarters profits are projected to snap back with the December quarter down only 8% in the same quarter last year. By the second half of next year, earnings are expected to be at an all-time high.

The NASDAQ 100 index compared with the S&P 500 index has reached a level of exuberance exceeding that of 2000.  If the NASDAQ leads the next market downturn, the saving grace for Australia is that less than 4% of its market capitalization comprises tech stocks compared with 27% in America.

Here is where the Australian market was at the close of trading last Friday.

On a short to medium trends perspective, the market still looks bullish.  Its momentum remains negative but less so.  On medium to long term trend analysis, the All Ords index is still bearish.  Its momentum is still negative and falling.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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Lussenheide Investment Warrior Report

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Last week the local stock market was weighed down by an increasing standoff between Australia and China (this time over granting immigration visas to Hong Kong residents) and a worrying second wave of COVID-19 infections in Victoria (which has resulted in a new lockdown of Melbourne residents).

The OECD’s composite leading economic indicator for the world shows a sharp rebound in June from its plunge in March and May. 

The short-to-medium term position of the Australian All Ords index remains bullish. Its MACD momentum oscillator has gone slightly negative.

The medium to long term position of the All Ords continues to be bearish. Its Coppock momentum oscillator is still negative and falling.

The All Ords index is in the lower band of its long term trend chart. By comparison, the US S&P 500 index is in its upper band on a comparable basis.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Palm Island Investments

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, July 5, 2020

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) decreased to a low-risk reading of 14%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe closed higher at a low-risk indication of 13%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, July 5, 2020

The financial year 2019/20 posted the worst market return since 2012. The All Ords share price index between Friday 28^th June 2019 and Tuesday 30^th June 2020 fell from almost 6,700 to 6,000; a drop of 10.4%. The flash crash from its high of 7,155 on the 20^th February to its low of 4,464 on the 23^rd March wiped 36.2% off its value. The All Ords index as of last Friday had recovered 62% of the ground it lost in the crash.

The recent market crash and rebound demonstrated the greatest market volatility in the 50-year history of the All Ords index.

On a short to medium-term perspective, the All Ords came close to going bearish at the start of last week, but then picked up momentum to reconfirm the rally it’s enjoyed for the last 15 weeks.

On a medium to long-term horizon, the All Ords is still in a bear market. Its Coppock momentum oscillator is still heading south and in negative territory. As for July, it’s typically the best month of the year for share markets.

Markets remain overvalued notwithstanding most still being well below their highs of February 20^th, 2020. But the clarion call of brokers is “there is no alternative” since Australian shares still deliver average dividends of 4.2% (with a forward estimate of 3.2%) whereas bank term deposits and government bonds yield at best only 1.0%.  That’s what’s driving retail investors into shares.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, July 6, 2020

Investors continue to focus on glimpses of hope rather than the spike in coronavirus cases. The positive increase in U.S. service sector numbers, the extension of the PPP deadline, probability of another round of stimulus payments, and an uptick in China's stock market seem to be offsetting concerns over the coronavirus spike in many states and a reduction in the flow of stimulus from the Fed. The question remains: How high does the spike need to be before the consequences and necessary countermeasures destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession?

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it fell below its lower band and then rose back to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +17.96% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -3.42% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +8.33% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.75% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.