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Crawford Perspectives

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Notwithstanding the All Ords index drifting sideways (with negative momentum) for the last three weeks it is still in the bullish territory on its short to medium term direction. Its medium to long direction has been bearish since the 13^th March. Nevertheless, its Coppock momentum oscillator moved into negative territory on the 5^th June and until it reverses direction we can’t be sure the bear market is over. 

In terms of global markets and domestic asset-classes here is the position at the end of this month.

Globally, gold is still king having recouped some of the ground it lost between the 18^th May and the 9^th of June. America’s S&P 500 index still has positive momentum over the 9 months’ time frame I use. Other Developed Country Markets and Emerging Markets are still in the doldrums. Domestically, Gold also remains in front while the other sectors (Resources, Property, and Finance) continue to show negative momentum over the last 9-months. 

The explanation for Gold’s resurgence is varied. Some say it’s because the upsurge in money printing spells higher inflation in the future. Others say because US interest rates could go negative the US dollar is falling which is making gold more attractive as a hedge.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, June 29, 2020

Investors are struggling to ignore the spike in Covid-19 cases. The Fed's stimulus dollars continue to flow but at a reduced rate. If infections continue to spike then renewed countermeasures may become necessary which would probably destroy optimism, impair future earnings, trigger another correction, and renew the recession.

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently when it fell to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +16.52% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -5.81% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +1.51% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.89% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

The US stock market risk rose to a high-risk level of 71%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a high-risk reading of 62%.

Our global stock market risk score (GSMR) remained at a high-risk level. The GSMR closed higher at 63%.

Quick info:
Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather
high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Chester Timing

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, June 22, 2020

Investors seem to be trying to ignore the negative and focus on the potential positive in hopes that future earnings will be strong due to businesses reopening, the unemployed getting back to work, and a vaccine being developed that will allow both of those to continue. The rebound in the Fed's stimulus dollars flowing into the market is probably also contributing to optimism and confidence. If infections continue to spike then renewed quarantine measures may become necessary which would probably destroy that optimism, impair future earnings, and trigger another correction.

Our LevBands strategy is in UPRO with an order scheduled to sell when it falls to its stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +16.60% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +1.33% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +5.48% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -24.77% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 75% in UPRO and 25% in EURL (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, June 21, 2020

The US market is highly overvalued, but most other share markets are not. Wall Street sets the tone for global markets so if it falls again other markets will too. However, no one knows what the future holds so one can only gauge the market’s trend and momentum.

Recently the S&P 500 price index has swung sideways as it did between mid-April and mid-May, but so far it remains bullish on both short and medium-term perspectives. The Australian market also remains bullish on a short-term basis, but medium-term it is still bearish though the gap between its 30-day trend line and its 300 days one is narrowing.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Volatimer

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RISXX Inc.

Sunday, June 14, 2020

The Global US Dollar Risk Rating (GUSDR) remained at a high-risk level. The GUSDR finished higher at 73% (last week: 69%).

The comprehensive and broad global US Dollar risk score is tracking a basket of 14 main US Dollar cross rates (e.g., EUR/USD).

Quick info:

Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

Leveraged Momentum

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Investors seem to be less certain that future earnings will be strong due to businesses reopening, the unemployed getting back to work, and a vaccine being developed that will allow both of those to continue. The reduction in the Fed's stimulus dollars flowing into the market is also contributing to uncertainty and volatility. If infections spike again then renewed quarantine measures may become necessary which would impair future earnings and trigger another correction.

Our LevBands strategy bought UPRO recently when it dropped below its lower band and then rose back up to that level at least one day later (buy low). An order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its trailing stop price (CYA). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +16.69% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -5.17% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -0.07% since tracking began on 11/24/18).
UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -15.96% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 75% in UPRO and 25% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, June 14, 2020

Since the market last dipped in April the bulls have been in charge. But last week the bears fought back. America’s S&P500 index dropped by 7.1 % between Monday and Thursday though clawed back 1.3% on Friday. The All Ords index fell in sympathy by 4.9% over Thursday and Friday. 

On a long-term analysis, the US market is sending mixed signals. The S&P 500 share index’s red 6-week trend line overtook its 60-week trend line in the week ending June 5^th suggesting it has gone bullish, but its Coppock momentum oscillator is still falling suggesting the bear market is still not over.  In Australia’s case, the bear market is still intact on both long -term trend and momentum analysis.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

TSP Trader

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Leveraged Momentum

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Investors continue to gamble that a vaccine will be developed quickly and that future earnings will be strong due to businesses reopening and the unemployed getting back to work. The Fed's stimulus dollars also seem to be pouring into the market. If infections spike again then renewed quarantine measures will probably become necessary which will impair future earnings and trigger another correction.

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its trailing stop price (CYA) and is in cash. When UPRO drops below its lower band then an order will be scheduled the next day to buy UPRO when it rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +14.30% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -9.04% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -2.98% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -13.41% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, June 7, 2020

The stock market’s ebullience continues to intensify. America’s better than expected jobs outcome for May (the strongest monthly rise since the 1930s) has reinvigorated the bulls.

America’s S&P500 share index is now just 5% short of its all-time high in February.  Believe it or not, the USA has had a V-shaped recovery in the midst of its worst economic slump since the great depression.  No U, W, or L-shape, just a clean V-shape.

The Australian All-Ords index has also been recovering, but compared with America has been dragging its feet. Yet Australia’s resilience to the pandemic and its economic fallout has been better than any other country in the world.

RISXX Inc.

Sunday, June 7, 2020

Global and Regional Bond Markets

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) increased to a medium risk reading of 55%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe closed higher at a medium risk indication of 58%.

Quick info: Generally, a risk level equal to or above 60% is indicating a rather high-risk and unfavorable market environment.

Triple Crown Timing

Friday, June 5, 2020

Our system recommended going short the stock market on February 21, 2020, during a pandemic for a fantastic gain.  We offer an algorithm that is realistic to use. We trade a realistic 15 to 30 times per year. 

Our signals are posted both on the website and to your personal email when you are a paid member. Our signals are posted no later than 3:40 EST and it is recommended you execute your trade at the market close the same day it is issued and are verified by Timertrac.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

TrendWerk TAAM

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Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, May 31, 2020

The Australian All Ords share index has consolidated its bullish stance on a short –term basis. Its red 2-week price trend is now clearly above its blue 6-week price trend and its price momentum remains positive. Gold continues to outpace both local industry share sectors and global regional share sectors over a nine-month time frame. 

The market is bifurcated. The bulls are piling into shares and the bears into gold. It’s rare for both markets to move in tandem, yet they have done so throughout this pandemic. Since March 23rd, the bulls have believed that the pandemic is a short sharp shock from which the economy, companies, and earnings will quickly recover. Bulls see this bear market as being V-shape or at worst U-shaped. Hence their eagerness to buy shares at discounted prices.

By contrast, the bears have dumped shares for cash or bought gold which has jumped in price since March 19th.  They are skeptical that an effective drug will be discovered, trialed, and distributed for at least 18 months or longer. Hence the share index will resemble a WWW-shape. Or possibly an L-shape if a vaccine is not found or herd immunity proves a fallacy.

Leveraged Momentum

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Investors continue to gamble that a vaccine will be developed quickly and that future earnings will be strong due to businesses reopening and the unemployed getting back to work without spiking infections which would require renewed quarantine measures and impair future earnings.

Our LevBands strategy sold UPRO recently due to its price falling to its trailing stop price (CYA) and is in cash. When UPRO drops below its lower band then an order will be scheduled the next day to buy UPRO when it rises back to that lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +14.33% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses remains in UPRO (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -12.93% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -8.37% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -11.78% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.