TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19
TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19

TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19

Broadcast ScriptTimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

TimingPunditBroadcast Script

News 0.3
News Items:

(May 12, 2020)
Charles Capital LLC ends the tracking of four strategies called "Charles Capital Mega, High, Moderate, and Conservative Growth" and adds one new strategy to be tracked called "Charles Capital Leveraged Nasdaq."
(May 11, 2020)
Lighthouse Financial starts tracking with two strategies called "Lighthouse QQQ and Portfolio Protection Strategy CS."
(May 7, 2020)
ProfitScore Capital Management, Inc. ends the tracking of three strategies called "ProfitScore - ETMS, RDEX, and THS."
(April 28, 2020)
AheadOfTheTrend adds one new strategy to be tracked called "AheadOfTheTrend Strike-A."
(April 5, 2020)
Leveraged Momentum adds one new strategy to be tracked called "Leveraged FANG from Leveraged Momentum."
(March 26, 2020)
KMW Timing, LLC adds one new strategy to be tracked called "KMW Timing SITTS TQQQ/SQQQ." 
(March 20, 2020)
Charles Capital LLC starts tracking with four strategies called "Charles Capital Mega, High, Moderate, and Conservative Growth."
(March 20, 2020)
AheadOfTheTrend ends the tracking of one strategy called "AheadOfTheTrend Strike."

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Developer Information

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        Trade           History

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Performance Graph

Market Timing in Australia

Sunday, May 24, 2020

On a short-term basis, the Australian All Ord’s share price index has gone bullish with its red 10-day trendline now surpassing its blue 30-day trendline. Note that the stock market’s momentum oscillator has been positive since March 30thHowever, on a longer-term basis, the stock market is still bearish with the All Ord’s red 30-day trend line still well below its blue 300-day trendline and its green Coppock momentum oscillator still heading south.  Note that short-term trend-tracking works best when a bear market is V or U- shaped since it responds faster to changes in market direction whereas longer-term trend-following applies best to W or L shaped bear markets.  How this market will pan out is anyone’s guess. But for the moment it is bullish short term, yet still bearish long term.

 Government pump-priming and central bank money printing are on an unprecedented scale to stop another 1930’s style of great depression following the coronavirus social and business lockdown. Most of the increased liquidity is flowing into the stock market fuelling a recovery in stock prices and indices.

Furthermore, in every state or province that has been afflicted by the pandemic, the worst seems to be over after two months. This suggests that the pandemic burns itself out allowing an economy to restore full capacity within about six months. China, the origin of the pandemic, returned to work on April 8th and only small localized outbreaks of the virus have occurred since then. These outbreaks have been quashed by imposing martial law in affected towns or neighborhoods thereby protecting the rest of society and the economy from the second wave of infections.

Australia’s economy is better placed to snap back than any other major economy so its All Ord’s index should catch up to and overtake the S&P500 index in the near future. China is boycotting Australian secondary exports (beef and barley) but is unlikely to move against our iron ore, coal, and gas exports since it’s too dependent on them. And as China steps up its infrastructure spending to counter its falling exports, Australian mining will be the chief beneficiary.

The harsh truth is that the world has undergone a flash depression (fall in GDP of at least 10% in just one quarter) that temporarily closed most industry sectors and has put others on hold indefinitely. This has eroded the working capital of many enterprises and caused many to default. Many SMEs have closed their doors and won’t reopen.

The collapse in international trade, migration, tourism, and investment (the main drivers of post-war growth) will take two to three years to recover. The worsening cold war between the USA and China will disrupt supply chains and the free movement of capital that will put a brake on growth.

Finally, democratic countries can’t impose martial law like China so they will experience further waves of the pandemic as social discipline breaks down. Reimposing lockdowns will extend and deepen this depression. Stock markets are denying economic reality, but eventually will be mugged by reality.

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