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Oracle Portfolio Management

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, May 2, 2020

The Australian market on a short term basis has refused to shift from being bearish to bullish. By contrast, the US share market on a short-term framework remains bullish, notwithstanding a slowing of its momentum oscillators.

Value stock funds have performed worse than growth stocks since the GFC. Observe how the worlds’ top 100 listed multinational companies fund (IOO)  has done better than global diversified share market fund (IWLD). Both these funds are listed on the ASX. Clearly investors think the world’s biggest companies can withstand an economic shock better than a broader range of companies in the developed world.

Of course, what really matters in this crash is not growth or value but the strength of a company’s balance sheet. In a bear market survival is more important than a company’s share price relative to earnings. And survival is about the standing of a company’s balance sheet, management, and competitive advantage and its post-pandemic growth prospects.  

Martone Capital Management, Inc.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) will begin next week just below major overhead resistance at 2938-3005, which was tested and held last week. This sets up a major decision point for the US Stock market. How SPX responds to this area over the next week or so will be seen as a key indication of whether the current late March rebound in the US stock market is the resumption of its previous 2009 secular uptrend or just a corrective bounce in an uncompleted major downtrend. 

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