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System Research LLC

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Performance Graph

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, May 9, 2020

In a short term time frame, the US share market went bullish on 13^th April and the Chinese share market followed on the 6^th of May, but the Australian share market is still flirting with that prospect but is not there yet. On a longer-term basis, all stock markets are still bearish.

On the pandemic crisis, the bulls say “it's all over rover”, new cases have been plummeting in Italy and Spain since late March and in New York since early April with no sign yet of a second wave outbreak. The rise outside New York is because it started there later and has not yet peaked. And the plateauing in Britain hides its fall in London but rises elsewhere as the virus ripples out.

Bulls say the economy will quickly bounce back because it was caused by a mandated shutdown which once lifted will see consumer and investor sentiment soar. Many companies have discovered innovative ways to market their products and saved money on shifting to remote working which will lift their profits in the future. Zombie companies have fallen by the wayside and will be replaced by others with stronger balance sheets. This creative destruction will give the share market a new lease on life. 

Furthermore Australian mining exports (iron ore, coal, and gold) remain strong so our trade surplus is growing. This is strengthening the Australian dollar which has also been buoyed by the international acclaim of Australia’s successful handling of the pandemic compared with its shambolic management in Europe and America.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, May 11, 2020

Investors seem to be gambling that a vaccine will be developed quickly and that steps to open businesses will not trigger another spike in infections.

Our LevBands strategy switched from TMF to UPRO recently when it rose above its lower band (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +18.54% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses also switched from TMF to UPRO recently when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -11.46% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends switched from TMF to TQQQ on Friday when it rose to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of +1.58% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -5.80% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

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