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Looking Glass Strategies LLC

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Performance Graph

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, April 20, 2020

Government intervention (stimulus) and hopes for a vaccine and effective therapies continue to hold sway over the fear of the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus. We are at the beginning of a very unusual recession and the duration will probably depend on if the virus plays out or becomes part of a new normal that also includes lower spending. While we have had and will likely continue to have opportunities to profit from various long and inverse tactics, neglecting to liquidate at optimum times tends to wipe out any gains and will probably lead to a season of whipsaws.

Our LevBands strategy is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises to its lower band (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.27% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses will sell TMF and buy UPRO when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows annualized return of -16.94% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends will sell TMF and buy TQQQ when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -6.98% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.46% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) sold TMF and bought FNGU when it rose to its buy indicator last week (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Thursday, April 16, 2020

The short term position of the Australian share market remains bearish. The All Ords index’s red 10-day trend line has still not overtaken its blue 30-day trend line. Its green MACD momentum oscillator is slowing. It's not yet clear whether this is another slight slip in the market’s strong rally since March 23^rd or the beginning of a pullback.

The American stock market on a short term basis went bearish on February 26^th and bottomed on March 23^rd. Its rally since then has been stronger than Australia’s notwithstanding it suffering a higher rate of coronavirus cases and deaths. But the momentum of its rally has also fallen on the last day as happened in early April before the market took off again. It’s presently very close to going bullish on a short term framework but needs another rally to escape its bearish standing.

Since March 23^rd the stock markets of both countries have viewed the pandemic as a temporary phenomenon that will burn itself out after two to three months of a strict lockdown involving border closures, self-isolation and quarantining victims. Epidemiologists warn that relaxing controls early will see the second wave of infections as happened during the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 that killed between 50 and 100 million people worldwide.

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