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MLKMAN Market Timing Services

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, April 25, 2020

The NASDAQ has been short-term bullish since April 14^th, recovering three-quarters of its loss during the stock market crash. The index is dominated by Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google which have strong balance sheets (i.e. low debt and high cash reserves) which are the key to economically surviving the lockdown. Also, ITC has thrived as social distancing has tightened.

Returning to market trend and momentum, the S&P500 has been short term bullish since April 17^th notwithstanding America’s shambolic handling of its pandemic -crisis including a President who supports civil disobedience against social distancing advice from his own experts.  Bulls obviously think the pandemic will soon burn out or a cure be found. Also the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus will underpin stocks from further falls. Bears think forward earnings estimates are unrealistically high and when that reality sets in stocks will fall again.

By contrast, the All Ords Index is still short-term bearish notwithstanding Australia introducing a large fiscal and monetary stimulus, doing better than almost every other country on stamping out COVID-19, and being heavily enmeshed with China’s economy which reopened on April 9^th.

Within Australian stock sectors, only Gold is shining through in this crash. Resources, Property, and Financial ETFs still show negative 9-month momentum. Globally, Gold is the star performer with only the US stock market showing positive momentum over 9-months while Other Developed Markets and Emerging Markets remain in negative territory.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, April 27, 2020

The market is moving sideways as we try to figure out what the future holds and when it will get here. We are in a recession and the duration depends on how the virus plays out and how consumers respond. While we have had and will likely continue to have opportunities to profit from various long and inverse tactics, increased volatility and difficulty in timing trades will probably lead to a season of whipsaws.

Our LevBands strategy is in TMF and will switch to UPRO when it rises to its lower band (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.20% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses will sell TMF and buy UPRO when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.81% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends will sell TMF and buy TQQQ when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -6.90% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.22% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 50% in UPRO and 50% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) is in FNGU (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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Looking Glass Strategies LLC

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Leveraged Momentum

Monday, April 20, 2020

Government intervention (stimulus) and hopes for a vaccine and effective therapies continue to hold sway over the fear of the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus. We are at the beginning of a very unusual recession and the duration will probably depend on if the virus plays out or becomes part of a new normal that also includes lower spending. While we have had and will likely continue to have opportunities to profit from various long and inverse tactics, neglecting to liquidate at optimum times tends to wipe out any gains and will probably lead to a season of whipsaws.

Our LevBands strategy is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises to its lower band (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.27% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16).  LevCrosses will sell TMF and buy UPRO when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows annualized return of -16.94% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends will sell TMF and buy TQQQ when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -6.98% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends will sell TMF and buy UPRO when it rises to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.46% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).  Leveraged FANG (FNGUTrends) sold TMF and bought FNGU when it rose to its buy indicator last week (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20).

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

Market Timing in Australia

Thursday, April 16, 2020

The short term position of the Australian share market remains bearish. The All Ords index’s red 10-day trend line has still not overtaken its blue 30-day trend line. Its green MACD momentum oscillator is slowing. It's not yet clear whether this is another slight slip in the market’s strong rally since March 23^rd or the beginning of a pullback.

The American stock market on a short term basis went bearish on February 26^th and bottomed on March 23^rd. Its rally since then has been stronger than Australia’s notwithstanding it suffering a higher rate of coronavirus cases and deaths. But the momentum of its rally has also fallen on the last day as happened in early April before the market took off again. It’s presently very close to going bullish on a short term framework but needs another rally to escape its bearish standing.

Since March 23^rd the stock markets of both countries have viewed the pandemic as a temporary phenomenon that will burn itself out after two to three months of a strict lockdown involving border closures, self-isolation and quarantining victims. Epidemiologists warn that relaxing controls early will see the second wave of infections as happened during the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 that killed between 50 and 100 million people worldwide.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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Sojourn Financial Strategies, LLC

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Market Timing in Australia

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

The optimistic V-shape versus pessimistic L-shape bear market debate continues to heat up.

The Bulls points to the V-shaped recovery during the Spanish Flu in 1917 and 1918, the best precedent for the health crisis happening now. A total of 50-100 million people died worldwide during that pandemic and the stock market early on had a crash of a similar magnitude to now that turned around quickly. Bulls also says both governments and central banks will do whatever it takes to avoid a depression.

The Bears say the economic shock from the pandemic will take a long time to heal and the current bounce is based on false hope, not realistic assessment. Bear markets normally go through three stages; crash, dead cat bounce and a further crash before bottoming.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, April 13, 2020

Fear of the impact of the Covid-19 or Coronavirus is temporarily being overwhelmed by government intervention and stimulus. We are at the beginning of a very unusual recession and the duration will probably depend on if the virus plays out or becomes part of the new normal. While we have had and will likely continue to have opportunities to profit from various long and inverse tactics, neglecting to liquidate at optimum times tends to wipe out any gains and will probably lead to a season of whipsaws.

Please keep in mind that the return figures below are delayed by 15 days so current return figures may be substantially lower due to the recent selloff and whipsaws.

Our LevBands strategy is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises to its lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.35% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16). LevCrosses is in cash and will buy UPRO when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows annualized return of -17.09% since tracking began on 4/10/18).

TQQQTrends is in cash and will buy TQQQ when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -7.08% since tracking began on 11/24/18).  UPROTrends is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -16.74% since tracking began on 3/25/19).

LevIndex is invested 25% in UPRO and 75% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19). FNGUTrends (Leveraged FANG) was added to TimerTrac this week and is in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 4/7/20)  

Performance data and charts for the each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

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KT Timing

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Martone Capital Management, Inc.

Monday, April 6, 2020

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) finished last week right on top of its 2009 secular uptrend line at 2487. We view this as a major decision point from which the next one to several month directional move, either up or down, is likely to begin. Recently declining market volatility currently favors a positive resolution, but it would take a positive shift in our tactical models to confirm this and indicate a buying opportunity. 

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, April 4, 2020

The short term market outlook will largely reflect progress on slowing the growth in new cases of coronavirus. Already new cases in Australia have halved from around 400 ten days ago to about 200 now, thanks to strict lock-down measures. In America (especially New York, the home of Wall Street) the number of new cases is still rising at an alarming rate with no sign yet that it is waning. And in the world as a whole, the situation is still out of control.

Australia’s market bounce followed the lock-down getting serious on Monday 23^rd March and economic rescue measures being rolled out from thereon. Effectively one section of government (Health department epidemiologists) had insisted on closing down the economy while another section (Treasury economists) had urged keeping it on life support. The final compromise seems to have been the right call. Scott Morrison is now the hero of the pandemic whereas previously he was the pariah of the bushfires.

The long-term market outlook will hinge on the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic both here and abroad. The key question is how long businesses can survive a recession that may not end until a vaccine is discovered and widely applied. That could take up to two years, 12-18 months to find a vaccine and 6 months to inject everyone.

Unlike the 2008 GFC, Australian banks are well-capitalized and have sufficient cash (thanks to RBA cheap loans) to help companies bridge the recession. But bank CEOs have made it clear that they won’t help companies that were zombies before the pandemic. With the number of new infection cases now falling in Australia the market’s attention will turn to which companies will or won’t survive the recession. That could see the share prices of some companies continue to rebound while that of others crash further. Whether the All Ords index rises or falls will depend on the projected overall earnings post-COVID-19. Such forecasts could fluctuate wildly as information on the depth and duration of the economic shock gradually unfolds.  Only market trend and momentum gauging will tell us how investor sentiment is moving. All else will be crystal ball gazing.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.