Enhanced TimerTrac Broadcast
03/23/2020
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Armando Alizo |
(March 20, 2020)
Charles Capital LLC starts tracking with four strategies called "Charles Capital Mega, High, Moderate, and Conservative Growth."
(March 14, 2020)
The Scary Guy Report ends the tracking of one strategy called "The Scary Guy Report Investment Portfolio."
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Martone Capital Management, Inc. Saturday, March 21, 2020 The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) finished last week below major underlying support at 2347. This major breakdown was corroborated by a similarly important breakdown below 223.47 per share in market-leading Apple Inc. (AAPL).
Our tactical models turned negative on February 24th and still warn of more market weakness next week. The next significant underlying support level in SPX is an additional -7.5% below the market at 2133. |
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Saturday, March 21, 2020 The huge stimulus packages announced by central banks and government around the world could boost stock markets next week, but until either a herd-immunity to the virus develops or an antidote is discovered the pandemic could persist.
A doctor friend tells me that with highly infectious viruses like COVID-19 almost no one is spared, though only a minority will feel severe symptoms and a fraction of these dies. The elderly and infirmed with weak immunity symptoms are the most vulnerable. In this doctor’s view, the absence of new home-grown cases in China and Vietnam is false dawn because when their residents return to work the virus will reignite and do a second round. For this reason, it could be a year or more before it runs its course.
If he is right the current bear market might undergo a series of rallies and corrections before a new bull market resumes. Any quick V-shaped recovery in the share index would only last if normal economic activity resumed with workers safely returning to work, consumers safely returning to shopping malls and travelers safely using mass transport. |
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