TimerTrac Broadcast – Market Timers’ View Amid Covid-19
03/30/2020
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Brian Deja |
(March 26, 2020)
(March 20, 2020)
Charles Capital LLC starts tracking with four strategies called "Charles Capital Mega, High, Moderate, and Conservative Growth."
(March 14, 2020)
The Scary Guy Report ends the tracking of one strategy called "The Scary Guy Report Investment Portfolio."
(March 6, 2020)
RISXX Inc. starts tracking with two strategies called "RISXX US Stock Risk Strategy and Rating."
(February 28, 2020)
(February 28, 2020)
Glance Financial Advisors LLC adds one new strategy to be tracked called "GLANCE_VIX."
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Saturday, March 28, 2020 Even a perfect response won’t end the pandemic. As long as the virus persists somewhere, there’s a chance that one infected traveler will reignite fresh sparks in countries that have already extinguished their fires. This is already happening in China, Singapore, and other Asian countries that briefly seemed to have the virus under control. Under these conditions, there are three possible endgames: one that’s very unlikely, one that’s very dangerous, and one that’s very long. The first is that every nation manages to simultaneously bring the virus to heel, as with the original SARS in 2003. The second is that the virus does what past flu pandemics have done: It burns through the world and leaves behind enough immune survivors that it eventually struggles to find viable hosts. The third scenario is that the world plays a protracted game of whack-a-mole with the virus, stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced. It depends, for a start, on making a vaccine. If this were a flu pandemic, that would be easier. The world is experienced in making flu vaccines and does so every year. But there are no existing vaccines for coronaviruses — until now, these viruses seemed to cause diseases that were mild or rare — so researchers must start from scratch. The first steps have been impressively quick. It’s likely, then, that the new coronavirus will be a lingering part of American life for at least a year, if not much longer. If the current round of social-distancing measures works, the pandemic may ebb enough for things to return to a semblance of normalcy. Offices could fill and bars could bustle. Schools could reopen and friends could reunite. But as the status quo returns, so too will the virus. This doesn’t mean that society must be on continuous lockdown until 2022. But “we need to be prepared to do multiple periods of social distancing,” says Stephen Kissler of Harvard. Much about the coming years, including the frequency, duration, and timing of social upheavals, depends on two properties of the virus, both of which are currently unknown. First: seasonality. Second: duration of immunity. Whether through accumulating herd immunity or the long-awaited arrival of a vaccine, the virus will find spreading explosively more and more difficult. It’s unlikely to disappear entirely. The vaccine may need to be updated as the virus changes, and people may need to get revaccinated on a regular basis, as they currently do for the flu. Models suggest that the virus might simmer around the world, triggering epidemics every few years or so. In this future, COVID-19 may become like the flu is today — a recurring scourge of winter. |
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Monday, March 30, 2020 Fear of the impact of the coronavirus continues to guide behavior. We are at the beginning of a very unusual recession and the duration depends on how quickly the virus plays out. While we have had and will likely continue to have opportunities to profit from inverse funds, neglecting to liquidate at optimum times tends to wipe out any gains. Please keep in mind that the return figures below are delayed by 15 days so current return figures are substantially lower due to the recent selloff. Our LevBands strategy is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises to its lower band (buy low). (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.51% for the LevBands strategy since tracking began on 4/27/16). LevCrosses was in UPRO yesterday but its indicator turned negative so it was sold (CYA). This strategy will buy UPRO when its indicator turns positive (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of -2.85% since tracking began on 4/10/18). TQQQTrends is in cash and will buy TQQQ when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 28.47% since tracking began on 11/24/18). UPROTrends is in cash and will buy UPRO when it rises back to its buy indicator (buy low; performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 3/25/19). LevIndex is invested 100% in TMF (performance data will be referenced 15 days after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19). Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site. |
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