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The TSP Strategist

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Performance Graph

Market Timing Australia

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Our Share Market Traffic Light is on Green this week.

(The Traffic Light is on Green when the Australian share market shows both positive short and long-term trends. It’s on Red when these trends are both negative. It’s on Amber when one of these trends is positive and the other is negative.)

Market Movements over the last week:

• The Australian All Ords index rose 1.5% from 7121.4 to 7227.1
• The American S&P 500 Index rose 1.6% from 3327.7 to 3380.2

Australia: Despite the December company reporting season coming in with disappointing results so far, the local market rose strongly this week as the banks, notably CBA and NAB, rose steeply, more than offsetting a flat week for resources and falls in energy stocks. Overseas leads were also strong as hopes rose that the impact of the Chinese coronavirus might be contained, although a high death toll from the virus on Friday may yet signal more headwinds.

America: US markets also posted a strong rise this week despite falls in consumer spending and industrial production, and a fall in GDP growth for the 2019 calendar year from 2018's result also cast a shadow over the mood. Emboldened by progress in the trade war with China, President Trump is now aiming his sights at the EU with increased tariffs on aircraft, and should this prove to be the start of another tit-for-tat trade war the impact on the global economy could be significant.

Sniper Market Timing

Sunday, February 16, 2020

The Global Bond Market Risk Rating (GBMR) finishes unchanged at 7% and remains at a low-risk reading. Last week the GBMR reached a low-risk level of 7%. The Regional Bond Market Risk Rating (RBMR) for Latin America is showing the best performance with an unchanged low-risk reading of 0%. Last week the rating was 0% (low-risk). On the contrary, the RBMR for the Asia-Pacific region is showing the least positive performance with a low-risk reading of 14%. Last week the rating was 8% (low risk).

The Global Stock Market Risk Rating (GSMR) decreases to a score of 38% and changes to a new low-risk reading. Last week the GSMR reached a medium risk level of 42%. The regional stock risk score for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is showing the best performance, indicating a low-risk reading of 21%. Last week the score was 31% (new low-risk). On the contrary, the RSMR for Emerging markets is indicating the least positive reading with a new low-risk level of 37%. Last week the rating was 43% (new medium risk).

The Global US Dollar Risk Rating (GUSDR) closes at a low-risk level. GUSDR increases to 35%. Last week the GUSDR reached a new low-risk level of 27%.

The Global Gold Risk Rating (GXAUR) finishes lower at a risk score of 38% and changes to a new low-risk level. Last week the GXAUR closed at 44% (new medium risk).

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, February 17, 2020

The market is fluctuating between fear of the impact the coronavirus may have on future earnings and greed spurred by the first phase of the trade war resolution, Trump's acquittal, strong consumer spending, and relatively strong earnings and sales.

Our LevBands strategy is in UPRO and order is scheduled to sell when it falls to its trailing stop price (CYA; TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 15.72% since tracking began on 4/27/16). LevCrosses remains in UPRO (an annualized return of 38.94% since began tracking on TimerTrac on 4/10/18). TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (TimerTrac shows an annualized return of 100.92% since tracking began on 11/24/18). UPROTrends also remain in UPRO (performance data will be referenced after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 3/25/19). LevIndex is also now invested 100% in UPRO (performance data will be referenced after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site.

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