TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Strategic Trend Timing (STT)

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Australia: The All Ords largely mirrored global movements this week with generally positive US earnings reports, reports that a "phase 1" US-China trade deal is close to being finalized, and a lessening of geopolitical tensions providing cheer. All eyes will be on the release of the September quarter inflation data next week, which is expected to show inflation tracking below the Reserve Bank's preferred range.

America: US markets also had a good week despite falling consumer confidence and falling manufacturing investment. While company earnings have overall been much less negative than had been expected, profit outlooks have been less optimistic and provide cause for concern. There is light at the end of the tunnel with hopes that some kind of trade deal will be concluded with China in the near future.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

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TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

ReturnStream

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Sniper Market Timing

Sunday, October 20, 2019

US stock markets finished lower on Friday. The US stock market risk increased to a low-risk level of 35%. US tech stock risk closed higher at a low-risk reading of 34%.

The global stock risk rating (GSMR) rose to a low-risk reading of 38%.

The regional stock risk score for the US, Canada, and Western Europe finished higher at a low-risk reading of 34%.

The global government bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed higher at a medium risk reading of 58%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe rose to a high-risk indication of 69%.

The global US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) closed at a new high-risk level. GUSDR increased to 62%.

The Global Gold Risk Rating (GXAUR) closed unchanged at a medium risk reading of 44%.

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Australia:The All Ords started the week strongly, finishing over 1.8% ahead on Wednesday fuelled by optimism over interest rates and progress in the US-China trade war. Jitters over Brexit brought a dose of reality on Thursday, and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate introduced doubt over next month's expected interest rate cut, and as a result, the market gave up most of its gains to close out the week with a modest rise.

America:US markets had a choppy week with rises and falls alternating on a daily basis. Despite the current earnings season being mildly positive, retail sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index both fell sharply, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth and China's growth slowed to a near 30-year low. The ongoing trade war appears to be impacting global growth, however, President Trump announced that he thinks an initial trade deal might be completed in the next month, providing some cause for optimism.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

David R Kern Asset Management

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Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Australia: The All Ords clawed back half of last week's losses as optimism over a US-China trade deal prompted by positive comments, admittedly heard before, from President Trump lifted sentiment. Acknowledgment by both the UK and Ireland of a possible pathway to a deal over Brexit was also well received and the week finished with most sectors rising. After some gyrations, the prices of iron ore and crude oil are showing signs of stabilizing, which is positive for the local economy.

America: US markets rose strongly on Friday to finish the week with a modest gain as President Trump announced that the US and China had reached a partial trade deal, however with new tariffs on some EU goods coming into effect and existing tariffs on Chinese goods remaining, there is still significant downward pressure on growth. In economic news, the CPI for September was zero and consumer sentiment rose.

Leveraged Momentum

Monday, October 14, 2019

The Market continues to fluctuate between fear of lower earnings, lower GDP, and the ongoing trade war and greed spurred by strong consumer spending, wage growth, the probability of the Fed continuing to lower rates, and stronger than expected actual earnings and sales.

Our LevBands model (annualized return of 15.02% since began tracking on TimerTrac on 4/27/16) is experiencing whiplash as it sold and bought UPRO again in the last week. LevCrosses remains in UPRO (annualized return of 27.19% since began tracking on TimerTrac on 4/10/18). UPROTrends also remains in UPRO (performance data will be referenced after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 3/25/19). TQQQTrends remains in TQQQ (performance data will be referenced after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 11/24/18). We recently added our LevIndex signal on TimerTrac and it is currently 50% in UPRO and 50% in TMF (performance data will be referenced after one year of tracking on TimerTrac which began 9/16/19).

Performance data and charts for each of these strategies along with the index of your choice (for comparison) can be obtained on the Graphs page of the TimerTrac site

Sniper Market Timing

Sunday, October 13, 2019

US stock markets finished higher on Friday. The US stock market risk decreased to a new medium risk level of 45%. US tech stock risk closed lower at a new medium risk reading of 43%.

The Global Stock Market Risk Rating (GSMR) sunk to a new medium risk reading of 46%.

The regional stock risk score for the US, Canada, and Western Europe finished lower at a new medium risk reading of 41%.

The global bond risk benchmark (GBMR) closed higher at a low-risk reading of 31%.

The regional bond risk indication for the US, Canada, and Western Europe rose to a low-risk indication of 38%.

The global US Dollar risk score (GUSDR) closed at a new medium risk level. GUSDR increased to 46%.

The Global Gold Risk Rating (GXAUR) closed higher at a new medium risk reading of 44%.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers. 

TimerTrac Developer Spotlight: 

Harloff Capital Management

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Sniper Market Timing

The Global Stock Market Risk Rating (GSMR) increases significantly to a score of 65% and changes to a new high-risk reading. Last week the GSMR reached a medium risk level of 42%.

The regional stock market risk rating for Eastern Europe is showing the best performance, indicating a new high-risk reading of 60%. Last week the score was t 30% (low-risk).

On the contrary, the RSMR for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is indicating the least positive reading with a new high-risk level of 74%. Last week the rating was 29% (low risk).

All other regional stock market risk ratings are showing new high-risk readings.

US stock market risk rises to a new high-risk level of 66% (last week: 37%, low risk). US tech stock risk closes higher at a new high-risk reading of 66% (last week: 42%, medium risk).

Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Australia: The All Ords fell heavily this week, again dragged down by global factors. On Monday, the Reserve Bank cut official interest rates and the market responded positively. However shrinking manufacturing in the US, fears over possible expansion of the US trade wars, and vastly reduced projections for global growth over the coming year all conspired to sour the mood and the index had its worst week in almost a year.

America: US markets recovered strongly on Friday to finish the week with only a modest loss after a positive jobs report helped lift sentiment. Earlier in the week, President Trump raised the prospect of a tariff war with the EU even as manufacturing data showed a sharp decline in activity, triggering fears of a recession.

If you are an active TimerTrac Developer and would like to submit your commentary to our broadcast, send your submissions to [email protected].  

Please review our broadcast policies before submitting your commentary. *

The TimerTrac Broadcast is an e-mail broadcast available to the public.  Anyone can subscribe or unsubscribe to the TimerTrac Broadcast list at any time, free of charge. A subscription to the TimerTrac Broadcast does not include a subscription to TimerTrac.com.  TimerTrac Developers DO NOT see a list of TimerTrac Broadcast subscribers.