Market Timing in Australia

Saturday, July 6, 2019

Australia:  Local markets reacted strongly to the latest cut in official interest rates and positive leads from overseas, driving the All Ords to within a whisker of its pre-GFC highs. The interest rate cuts particularly boosted the real estate sector, with SLF up over 6.5%. Positive news on trade from the G20 meeting and rising iron ore prices also helped the sentiment.

America:  A softening in US-China trade relations after the G20 meeting lifted spirits. The US has agreed to put additional tariffs on hold and ease some restrictions on Huawei, China has agreed to some new purchases of US agricultural products, and some other agreements have been reached as the parties will now restart negotiations. 

Martone Capital Management, Inc.

Monday, July 8, 2019

Although some near term negative market factors have emerged this week (options volume and investor sentiment), the stock market's major and minor trends remain positive, along with key market internals that we follow.

If the market was to stall on the upside this week, the first places we would likely see some emerging weakness would be a rise above 15.13 in the VIX and a decline back below 81.33 on the NASDAQ Composite Index. Otherwise our near to intermediate term US market outlook remains positive.

SNIPER Market Timing

Monday, July 8, 2019

The Global Stock Market Risk Rating (GSMR) remains at a low-risk reading. The GSMR decreases to a reading of 23%. Last week the GSMR reached a low-risk level of 29%.

The regional stock market risk rating (RSMR) for the EAFE region (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), measuring the aggregated potential market risk of developed stock markets outside of the US and Canada, is showing the best performance, indicating a low-risk reading of 13%. Last week the score was at 19% (low risk).

On the contrary, the RSMR for Africa is indicating the least positive reading with a low-risk level of 38%. Last week the rating was at 37% (low risk).

All other regional stock market risk ratings are showing low-risk readings.

US stock market risk sinks to a low-risk level of 17% (last week: 23%, low risk). US tech stock risk closes at a low-risk reading of 16% (last week: 21%, low risk).